Measuring the changing pulse of rivers

Slater, Louise; Wilby, Robert L.

doi:10.1126/science.aao2441

Cited by 11 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 12 publications

(12 reference statements)

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“…In some snowmelt‐dominated catchments, this may be explained by that the warmer surface temperatures lead to earlier snowmelt and thus resulting in more intensified runoff (Moore et al ., 2007). Other possible underlying mechanisms also contribute to the altering flooding regime, for example, changing soil moisture pattern can exert great impacts on the temporal distribution of groundwater recharge and base flow (Slater and Wilby, 2017). In short, the flood timing consistently shows significant changes that may imply that flood seasonality and related regimes will alter under climate warming.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is well known that flood risks are projected to rise as climate warming has altered the global hydrological cycle (Slater and Wilby, 2017). This study quantitatively evaluates the climate warming impacts on flood quantiles and the corresponding sampling uncertainty at the national F I G U R E 9 Violin plot of the relative change results for six climate models under four different return periods.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As the timing of annual maximum streamflow is a useful index to relate flood occurrence to appropriate flood generation processes, it is selected as the indicator of flood seasonality following previous studies (Chen et al ., 2012; Slater and Wilby, 2017; Do et al ., 2019). Subsequently, this study detects the timing and investigates the potential evolution of the flood seasonality under climate change.…”

Section: Methodsologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Slater and Wilby, 2017;Do et al, 2019). Subsequently, this study detects the timing and investigates the potential evolution of the flood seasonality under climate change.…”

Section: Flood Timing Detectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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On future flood magnitudes and estimation uncertainty across 151 catchments in mainland China

Yin

Wang

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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As atmospheric moisture holding capacity is positively dependent on temperatures, a large intensification of precipitation extremes is projected under foreseeable climate warming. Flooding that is mainly attributed to extreme storms usually accounts for an ambitious target in weather-related hazard mitigation over China. Previous works seldom focused on flooding evolution patterns under climate change at a national scale, and fewer flooding projections considered the estimation uncertainty sourced from limited samples. This study systematically projected changes in flood quantiles based on annual maximum series and seasonality and also evaluated the variations of sampling uncertainty for 151 catchments over mainland China under the emission scenario of representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. In order to project future streamflow series, the bias-corrected outputs of six global climate models (GCMs) were input into a best-performing hydrological model, which was selected from four calibrated hydrological models based on the KGE criteria. The Pearson type-III (P-III) distribution and L-moments (L-M) method were employed to derive the flood quantiles for different return periods during historical (1961-2005) and future (2056-2100) periods, and the bootstrapping method was applied to estimate the sampling uncertainty. A regression trend method was used to track the variations of flood seasonality in the context of climate warming. Our results project earlier flood timing and larger flood quantiles for most catchments in future period than those in the historical period, despite being accompanied by substantial spatial variations. We also project that the sampling uncertainty in estimating flood quantiles is increased in a warming future. Many catchments are exposed to dramatic changes in both flood quantile and estimation uncertainty by over 50%, while only a few catchments are projected to have decreasing flood risks. These results suggest an urgent need to improve the functionality of early warning systems and increase societal resilience to warming climates over China.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Slater and Wilby, 2017;Do et al, 2019). Subsequently, this study detects the timing and investigates the potential evolution of the flood seasonality under climate change.…”

Section: Flood Timing Detectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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On future flood magnitudes and estimation uncertainty across 151 catchments in mainland China

Yin

Wang

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…However, potential changes in the intensity and frequency of precipitation events will change flooding hazard (Moftakhari et al, 2017;Sadegh et al, 2018a). Different studies have projected an increasing trend in river flood hazard under a warmer climate condition (Arnell & Gosling, 2016;Dankers et al, 2014;Hirabayashi et al, 2013;Kundzewicz et al, 2014;Slater & Wilby, 2017;Winsemius et al, 2016), which is anticipated to change failure risks of water infrastructure systems. For instance, Winsemius et al (2016) projected that global flood risk could be amplified by a factor of 20, due to global warming, by the end of this century.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate‐Induced Changes in the Risk of Hydrological Failure of Major Dams in California

Mallakpour

AghaKouchak

Sadegh

2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Existing major reservoirs in California, with average age above 50 years, were built in the previous century with limited data records and flood hazard assessment. Changes in climate and land use are anticipated to alter statistical properties of inflow to these infrastructure systems and potentially increase their hydrological failure probability. Because of large socioeconomic repercussions of infrastructure incidents, revisiting dam failure risks associated with possible shifts in the streamflow regime is fundamental for societal resilience. Here we compute historical and projected flood return periods as a proxy for potential changes in the risk of hydrological failure of dams in a warming climate. Our results show that hydrological failure probability is likely to increase for most dams in California by 2100. Noticeably, the New Don Pedro, Shasta, Lewiston, and Trinity Dams are associated with highest potential changes in flood hazard.

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Interacting effects of climate change and invasions by alien plant species on the morphodynamics of temperate rivers

2023

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This review explores the implications of climate change for the functioning of plant species as biogeomorphic engineers of temperate river systems, including the potential for an increasing role of invasive alien plant species (IAPS). First, we introduce engineer plants as important controls, along with flowing water and transported sediments, on the morphodynamics of river systems and the likelihood that climate change may affect the contributions of species within their native habitats. We then examine through the prism of the fluvial biogeomorphic succession model how climate change may accelerate the establishment of IAPS, the possible consequences for the performance and/or persistence of native engineer plant species, and thus the potential pathways of influence for IAPS on river morphodynamics. Finally, we present examples of the impacts of invasions by specific plant species along particular river systems and consider their potential biogeomorphic impact against a backdrop of climate change. Loss, replacement, or displacement of native plant species in the river corridor by IAPS can potentially alter biogeomorphic phenomena by directly increasing or decreasing erosion and/or sedimentation and the associated development of fluvial landforms. In the shorter term, increased climate disturbance may provide more establishment opportunities for opportunistic IAPS. In the longer term, under heavy establishment, IAPS may alter the coupled assembly of plant communities, fluvial landforms and ecosystem development, potentially resulting in river landscape metamorphosis and significantly changed habitat conditions.This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Water and Environmental Change Water and Life > Nature of Freshwater Ecosystems Water and Life > Stresses and Pressures on Ecosystems Water and Life > Conservation, Management, and Awareness

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Measuring the changing pulse of rivers

Abstract: A 50-year data set shows changes in the seasonal timing of river floods in Europe

Cited by 11 publications

References 12 publications

On future flood magnitudes and estimation uncertainty across 151 catchments in mainland China

On future flood magnitudes and estimation uncertainty across 151 catchments in mainland China

Climate‐Induced Changes in the Risk of Hydrological Failure of Major Dams in California

Interacting effects of climate change and invasions by alien plant species on the morphodynamics of temperate rivers

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