Measuring Success from Below: The Social Legitimacy of the United Nations among Populations Exposed to its Peacekeeping Operations

Abstract

The success of peacekeeping forces is both a topic of heated debate and a central theme in the literature on international peacekeeping. Most existing answers to this question rely on onedimensional macro-measures of effectiveness, such as battle fatalities. This paper proposes another perspective that is based on the point of view of local residents in countries that host United Nations peacekeepers. It argues that their support is an indicator of success, since they evaluate the institutional effectiveness of the peacekeepers they are exposed to. Using an aggregation of longitudinal data from the World Values Survey (N=25,196), and original data on the exposure to peacekeepers collected from the United Nations archives, we offer a unique, systematic and cross-national measurement of the local legitimacy of peacekeeping forces.Results from a multilevel, mixed-effects, linear model show significantly lower levels of confidence in the United Nations and higher levels of demand for the accountability of its forces in countries with an active peacekeeping operation. The level of confidence has a strong and negative correlation with the size of the mission, even when controlled for varied ideological explanations and for confidence extrapolation. The paper contributes to an ongoing debate on international peacekeeping and to research on the legitimacy of international organizations.Acknowledgments: The author would like to thank Arie Kacowicz, Daniel Wajner and Georgina Y. Johnson for comments on earlier drafts of the paper. All of the responsibility on its contents are on the author alone.