Measuring population ageing: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Abstract

Background Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.3, targets to eliminate HIV from being a public health threat by 2030. For better tracking of this target interim Fast Track milestones for 2020 and composite complementary measures have been indicated. This study measured the Fast Track progress in the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS in Ethiopia across ages compared to neighboring countries. Methods The National Data Management Center for health's research team at the Ethiopian Public Health Institute has analyzed the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 secondary data for the year 2010 to 2017 for Ethiopia and its neighbors. GBD 2017 data sources were census, demographic and a health survey, prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission, antiretroviral treatment programs, sentinel surveillance, and UNAIDS reports. Age-standardized and age-speci c HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), incidence:mortality ratio and incidence:prevalence ratio were calculated with corresponding 95% con dence intervals. Results Ethiopia and neighboring countries recorded slow progress in reducing new HIV infection since 2010. Only Uganda would achieve the 75% target by 2020. Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda already achieved the 75% mortality reduction target set for 2020. The incidence: prevalence ratio for Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda were < 0.03, indicating the countries were on track to end HIV by 2030. Ethiopia had an incidence: mortality ratio <1 due to high mortality; while Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda had a ratio of >1 due to high incidence. The HIV incidence rate in Ethiopia was dropped by 76% among under 5 children in 2017 compared to 2010 and the country would likely to attain the 2020 national target, but far behind achieving the target among the 15-49 age group. Conclusions Ethiopia and neighboring countries have made remarkable progress towards achieving the 75% HIV/AIDS mortality reduction target by 2020, although they progressed poorly in reducing HIV incidence. By recording an incidence:prevalence ratio benchmark of less than 0.03, Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda are well heading towards epidemic control. Nonetheless, the high HIV/AIDS mortality rate in Ethiopia for its incidence requires innovative strategies to reach out undiagnosed cases and to build institutional capacity for generating strong evidence to ensure sustainable epidemic control.

Peculiarities of Age Vegetology of Men in Young and Middle Age

“…Хронічні захворювання зазвичай починаються зі змін у вегетативних функціях і навпаки, їх дисфункція може призвести до захворюваності та смертності від хронічних захворювань, які прогресують з віком. І звичайно старіння людини також пов'язане зі змінами у вегетативних функціях [9,10,11,12].…”

Dietary intake in health and disease, challenges in measuring and reporting diet‐disease relationships

“…The final papers in this issue focus on anthropometric indices, sarcopenia and malnutrition in the context of the aging population and the rising prevalence of overweight, obesity 34,35 and the global burden of disease. 34,36 Effective detection of chronic disease risk factors is vital for primary and secondary prevention. The challenge for dietetics is to implement quick and cost-effective methods for screening diet-related chronic disease risk.…”

The Ones We Seldom See: Old Folks in Young Countries

“…In addition to the still low rates of smoking, there is some other good news. Despite all of the above, in keeping with data from around the world and more specifically for East Africa due to better (albeit not yet good) attention to risk factors as well as an overall rise in socioeconomic status, the GBD study indicated a fall between 1990 and 2017 of 19% in age‐standardized age‐related disease burden; this compared to an overall global decrease of 23% …”

“…Despite all of the above, in keeping with data from around the world and more specifically for East Africa due to better (albeit not yet good) attention to risk factors as well as an overall rise in socioeconomic status, the GBD study indicated a fall between 1990 and 2017 of 19% in age-standardized age-related disease burden; this compared to an overall global decrease of 23%. 8 Looking at cognitive decline (again, from which Biruk's grandmother did not have), other studies have indicated not surprisingly that some older persons in LICs already have and others will not be spared the ravages of these diseases. A fascinating study, funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, reported that the global number of individuals living with dementia worldwide has more than doubled from 20.2 million in 1992 to almost 44 million today, with dementia now being the fifth leading cause of death.…”