Measuring long‐term sustainability with shared socioeconomic pathways using an inclusive wealth framework

Abstract

To understand the trajectory of sustainability, it is important to measure historical and future projections of productive capital that contribute to wellbeing. This study considers a productive base that includes the human, natural and produced capital of 140 countries. We then develop projections for 2014–2100 using the newly developed shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) that strive to explain the implications of key socioeconomic variables on long‐term global sustainability. Those SSPs with high investments in broad societal development are associated with the highest growth in inclusive wealth. Poverty alleviation, demographic changes and human capital investments are effective instruments to attain greater wealth as shown in East and Southeast Asia. Furthermore, the SSP that describes a sustainability pathway, which poses the least climate change challenges and substantially reduced reliance on natural resources, is more conducive to increasing wellbeing than the fragmented pathways that result in inequality.

Projections of Human Exposure to Dangerous Heat in African Cities Under Multiple Socioeconomic and Climate Scenarios

“…Future work should also aim at better characterizing the share of the population that is truly exposed to extreme heat—moving toward personal heat exposure research, which accounts for both indoor and outdoor environment and individual behaviors (Bernhard et al, ; Kuras et al, ). Finally, further research is certainly needed to go beyond exposure and to explore future vulnerability to heat under the different SSPs—employing the growing body of literature that extend and quantify the global SSPs' narratives (e.g., Crespo Cuaresma et al, ; Kurniawan & Managi, ; Witmer et al, )—and particularly their ability to shift the burden of heat‐related health risks in African cities to lower levels, under varying degrees of exposure.…”

Gathering society's opinion of the sustainable management and economic value of the coastal zone

“…In general, many studies have shown that environmental concern does not necessarily rely on people's knowledge about ecological processes, their influence on these processes, or the implications of human‐induced environmental change (Bord, O'Connor, & Fisher, ; Henry, ; Kurniawan & Managi, ; Managi & Wakamatsu, ; Rajapaksa et al, ; Wakamatsu, Shin, Wilson, & Managi, ). In contrast, the other items of the first factor are related to the need to protect biodiversity for future generations and to ensure marine environmental quality.…”

Building Regional Sustainable Development Scenarios with the SSP Framework

“…Recent research has presented methods to downscale global assumptions and estimates, focusing on quantifying input metrics [47]. Examples include methods that use population, productivity, and capital stock growth to estimate regional per capita GDP [11] or changes in age structure, educational attainment and economic growth to project national per capita income [48]. As for Meteorological data, the Delta method is frequently used to downscale.…”

“…The SSPs link the CO2 concentration target and societal economic development, which includes population, GDP, urbanization, and other socio-economic indicators. To satisfy the need for policies and quantitative analysis [11], the SSPs include seven complex indicator systems, including human and resource indicators, economic development, human development, technology, lifestyle, natural resource, and government policy [10]. In addition to population and GDP, the SSPs add the human development index to analyze adaptation, mitigation and vulnerability, especially for agriculture, land use, and water resources.…”