Measuring industrial lumber production using nighttime lights: A focus study on lumber mills in British Columbia, Canada

Abstract

Nighttime lights (NTL) are the procurement of remotely sensed artificial illumination from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) satellite. NTL provides a unique perspective on anthropogenic activity by characterizing spatial and temporal patterns related to economic trends and human development. In this study, we assess the ability of NTL to characterize trends associated with industrial lumber production in British Columbia, Canada. We establish the presence of a logarithmic relationship between NTL and lumber mill production capacity (R2 = 0.69–0.82). The ability of NTL to temporally identify mill closures is then demonstrated by differentiating pairs of active and closed mills. We also identify Granger causality and co-integration between NTL and monthly lumber production, highlighting the predictive capability of NTL to forecast production. We then utilize this relationship to build linear regression models that utilize NTL data to estimate monthly (R2 = 0.33), quarterly (R2 = 0.58), and annual (R2 = 0.90) lumber production without reported data.