Measuring illicit cigarette trade in Colombia

Maldonado, Norman; Llorente, Blanca; Iglesias, Roberto; Escobar, Diego A.

doi:10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2017-053980

Cited by 27 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…The proportion of illicit cigarettes identified in this study is higher than the one recently found for Colombia,15 though far below the level reported for Panama16 and Brazil 14 20. We do not have estimates for illicit cigarettes penetration in other areas of the country, but it could be expected that in border areas or those near duty free zones, the penetration could be higher, based on what was found in other Latin American countries, such as Colombia15 and Panama 16. Given that 40.5% of the national population lives in Metropolitan Santiago,21 it is very likely that the national total is close to what was reported here.…”

Section: Resultscontrasting

confidence: 86%

“…Though typical illicit trade control measures are supply side oriented (eg, increasing penalties for contraband-related crimes, reducing or eliminating duty-free allowances, increasing controls at sensitive borders and implementing track and trace systems), identifying the socioeconomic variables associated with the purchase of illicit cigarettes may help authorities to understand relevant aspects of this phenomenon and help them to design more effective policies to control the illicit cigarette trade from the demand side. This follows similar studies conducted in the region, which also inquire about socioeconomic variables linked to illicit cigarette consumption 14–16. In this regard, the results obtained here can be compared with those obtained in similar countries.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 80%

“…The models include as covariates sex, employment status (employed or not), preferred attribute in the choice of brand (with ‘less harmful’ as the reference category) and educational level achieved (with complete or incomplete university education as the reference category). These variables have been considered in similar studies in the region 15…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the first time in Chile, a direct method (survey of smokers) is used, and one that is independent of the TI. Because the use of direct methods to estimate illicit cigarette trade is relatively new in the Latin American region,15 16 this research makes an important new contribution to this growing literature and helps to establish patterns of both industry behaviour and that of smokers.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Illicit cigarette trade in Metropolitan Santiago de Chile

2018

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ObjectiveTo estimate with a rigorous statistical methodology and independent from the tobacco industry the prevalence and consumption of illicit cigarettes in Metropolitan Santiago de Chile, in addition to identifying the variables statistically associated with choosing to smoke illicit cigarettes.MethodsSurveys of 851 smokers who reside in the Metropolitan Santiago were collected using a sampling design that combined a randomisation of high-traffic points and a quota sampling to approximate the smoking population. Photographs of packs along with questions on where they were bought were used to define whether cigarettes were licit or illicit. After this identification, the statistical association between the decision to smoke illicit cigarettes and sociodemographic variables and smoking habits was estimated using probit models.ResultsThe proportion of smokers smoking illicit cigarettes in Metropolitan Santiago was 10.9%. Adjusted by smoking intensity, 16.3% of cigarettes smoked in a month were illicit. Models show that the probability of smoking illicit cigarettes is inversely associated with employment status (ie, employed/inactive/unemployed), and smokers with lower levels of education are more likely to smoke illicit cigarettes. Though smokers’ incomes are not directly measured, both employment status and educational levels are indicative that illicit cigarette consumption is more prevalent among low-income groups.ConclusionsThe proportion of smokers consuming illicit cigarettes estimated in this research is less than half of the widely publicised claims of the tobacco industry. Furthermore, past and present pricing strategies by the tobacco industry indicate that, contrary to public statements, the tobacco industry is not concerned by illicit trade.

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Section: Resultscontrasting

confidence: 86%

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 80%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Illicit cigarette trade in Metropolitan Santiago de Chile

2018

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“…We use the threshold price methodology, which has been applied elsewhere,16–18 to assess the size of the illicit cigarette market in South African townships. Townships are underdeveloped and segregated urban areas often spatially disconnected from economic centres and located on the outskirts of major metropolitan areas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The illicit cigarette market in six South African townships

et al. 2020

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BackgroundWe estimate the size of the illicit cigarette market in low socioeconomic areas in South Africa before and after a tax increase. In 2018, the real excise tax increased by 3% and the value-added tax (VAT) rate increased from 14% to 15%. Thus, the real tax on cigarettes increased by 4%.MethodsA total of 2427 smokers were interviewed over two rounds of data collection (1234 before the tax increase and 1193 after). Data were collected in six townships across four of South Africa’s nine provinces. Smokers were asked about their most recent cigarette purchase. Cigarettes purchased for R1 (US$0.08) or less per stick are presumed illicit, based on a threshold price, which includes production costs and taxes.ResultsIn 2017 and 2018 respectively, 34.6% and 36.4% of smokers in the sample purchased illicit cigarettes. The increase in the proportion of illicit purchases was not statistically significant. Smokers with relatively low socioeconomic status, those who have low levels of education and those who are older or unemployed are most likely to purchase illicit cigarettes.ConclusionsThe illicit cigarette trade in South African townships is widespread. The government should implement an independent track and trace system to curb tax evasion. This would reduce the availability of illicit cigarettes, improve public health and increase excise tax collection.

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The health, economic and social burden of smoking in Argentina, and the impact of increasing tobacco taxes in a context of illicit trade

et al. 2023

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Tobacco tax increases, the most cost‐effective measure in reducing consumption, remain underutilized in low and middle‐income countries. This study estimates the health and economic burden of smoking in Argentina and forecasts the benefits of tobacco tax hikes, accounting for the potential effects of illicit trade. Using a probabilistic Markov microsimulation model, this study quantifies smoking‐related deaths, health events, and societal costs. The model also estimates the health and economic benefits of different increases in the price of cigarettes through taxes. Annually, smoking causes 45,000 deaths and 221,000 health events in Argentina, costing USD 2782 million in direct medical expenses, USD 1470 million in labor productivity loss costs, and USD 1069 million in informal care costs—totaling 1.2% of the national gross domestic product. Even in a scenario that considers illicit trade of tobacco products, a 50% cigarette price increase through taxes could yield USD 8292 million in total economic benefits accumulated over a decade. Consequently, raising tobacco taxes could significantly reduce the health and economic burdens of smoking in Argentina while increasing fiscal revenue.

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Measuring illicit cigarette trade in Colombia

Cited by 27 publications

References 12 publications

Illicit cigarette trade in Metropolitan Santiago de Chile

Illicit cigarette trade in Metropolitan Santiago de Chile

The illicit cigarette market in six South African townships

The health, economic and social burden of smoking in Argentina, and the impact of increasing tobacco taxes in a context of illicit trade

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