Measuring compound flood potential from river discharge and storm surge extremes at the global scale

Couasnon, Anaïs; Eilander, Dirk; Muis, Sanne; Veldkamp, Ted; Haigh, Ivan D.; Wahl, Thomas; Winsemius, Hessel; Ward, Philip J.

doi:10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020

Cited by 169 publications

(178 citation statements)

References 74 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

144

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…For natural hazards it is thus important to consider compound, or multivariate, events (e.g. Zscheischler et al, 2020;Zscheischler et al, 2018;De Luca et al, 2017, 2020bCouasnon et al, 2020;Ward et al, 2018) as well as cascading events (e.g. de Ruiter et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Compound warm–dry and cold–wet events over the Mediterranean

et al. 2020

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The Mediterranean (MED) Basin is a climate change hotspot that has seen drying and a pronounced increase in heatwaves over the last century. At the same time, it is experiencing increased heavy precipitation during wintertime cold spells. Understanding and quantifying the risks from compound events over the MED is paramount for present and future disaster risk reduction measures. Here, we apply a novel method to study compound events based on dynamical systems theory and analyse compound temperature and precipitation events over the MED from 1979 to 2018. The dynamical systems analysis quantifies the strength of the coupling between different atmospheric variables over the MED. Further, we consider compound warm–dry anomalies in summer and cold–wet anomalies in winter. Our results show that these warm–dry and cold–wet compound days are associated with large values of the temperature–precipitation coupling parameter of the dynamical systems analysis. This indicates that there is a strong interaction between temperature and precipitation during compound events. In winter, we find no significant trend in the coupling between temperature and precipitation. However in summer, we find a significant upward trend which is likely driven by a stronger coupling during warm and dry days. Thermodynamic processes associated with long-term MED warming can best explain the trend, which intensifies compound warm–dry events.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Compound warm–dry and cold–wet events over the Mediterranean

et al. 2020

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Methods are being developed at the global scale to assess both the statistical dependence among these hazards (e.g. Bevacqua et al, 2019;Couasnon et al, 2020) and their physical impacts in terms of hazard (Ikeuchi et al, 2017), with the step towards risk being the next logical one.…”

Section: Multi-hazard and Multi-riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review article: Natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale

Ward

Blauhut

Bloemendaal

et al. 2020

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

Self Cite

181

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Since 1990, natural hazards have led to over 1.6 million fatalities globally, and economic losses are estimated at an average of around USD 260–310 billion per year. The scientific and policy communities recognise the need to reduce these risks. As a result, the last decade has seen a rapid development of global models for assessing risk from natural hazards at the global scale. In this paper, we review the scientific literature on natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale, and we specifically examine whether and how they have examined future projections of hazard, exposure, and/or vulnerability. In doing so, we examine similarities and differences between the approaches taken across the different hazards, and we identify potential ways in which different hazard communities can learn from each other. For example, there are a number of global risk studies focusing on hydrological, climatological, and meteorological hazards that have included future projections and disaster risk reduction measures (in the case of floods), whereas fewer exist in the peer-reviewed literature for global studies related to geological hazards. On the other hand, studies of earthquake and tsunami risk are now using stochastic modelling approaches to allow for a fully probabilistic assessment of risk, which could benefit the modelling of risk from other hazards. Finally, we discuss opportunities for learning from methods and approaches being developed and applied to assess natural hazard risks at more continental or regional scales. Through this paper, we hope to encourage further dialogue on knowledge sharing between disciplines and communities working on different hazards and risk and at different spatial scales.

show abstract

“…CC BY 4.0 License. estuarine floods have the potential to be caused by several separate but physically connected processes, including high water levels from the ocean resulting from storm surge and/or high astronomical tide, and riverine floods due to intense 'flood-producing' rainfall in the contributing catchments (Couasnon et al, 2020;IPCC, 2012;Leonard et al, 2014;Zscheischler et al, 2018). In addition, many estuaries around the world and their contributing catchments have exhibited substantial changes in land use (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate change adds a further layer of complexity, resulting in increasing ocean levels as well as changes to storm dynamics that will lead to changes in both storm surges and rainfall patterns 45 (Lowe and Gregory, 2005;Wasko and Sharma, 2015; and potentially their dependence (Wu and Leonard, 2019). The combination of these factors means that conventional approaches for flood risk estimation as commonly applied to inland catchments are rarely, if ever, suitable for estuarine situations (Couasnon et al, 2020;Zscheischler et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Estimating the Probability of Compound Floods in Estuarine Regions

Wu¹,

Westra²,

Leonard³

2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The quantification of flood risk in estuarine regions relies on accurate estimation of flood probability, which is often challenging due to the rareness of flood events and their multi-causal (or compound) nature. Failure to consider the compounding nature of estuarine floods can lead to significant underestimation of flood risk in these regions. This study provides a comparative review of alternative approaches for estuarine flood estimation; namely, traditional univariate flood frequency analysis applied to both observed historical data and simulated data, and multivariate frequency analysis applied to flood events. Three specific implementations of the above approaches are evaluated on a case study – the estuarine portion of Swan River in Western Australia, highlighting the advantages and disadvantages of each approach. The theoretical understanding of the three approaches, combined with findings from the case study, enable generation of guidance on method selection for estuarine flood probability estimation, recognising issues such as data availability, complexity of the application/analysis process, location of interest within the estuarine region, computational demands and whether or not future conditions need to be assessed.

show abstract

Measuring compound flood potential from river discharge and storm surge extremes at the global scale

Cited by 169 publications

References 74 publications

Compound warm–dry and cold–wet events over the Mediterranean

Compound warm–dry and cold–wet events over the Mediterranean

Review article: Natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale

Estimating the Probability of Compound Floods in Estuarine Regions

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About