Measuring business cycles: Empirical evidence based on an unobserved component approach

Alqaralleh, Huthaifa

doi:10.1080/23322039.2019.1571692

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…The data were collected monthly over the period January 2000 to January 2019 for the G7 countries. As highlighted in the introduction, the G7 countries merit special attention because they provide extreme examples of financial instability and unsustainable asymmetric cycles (see, inter alia, Alqaralleh, 2019). To calculate the inflation and stock returns, the log differences of real stock prices and CPI were computed.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Stock return-inflation nexus; revisited evidence based on nonlinear ARDL

Alqaralleh

2020

Journal of Applied Economics

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Understanding the Stock Return-Inflation Nexus is a continuing concern among scholars. The main goal of the current study was to critically examine the view that the relation between stock return and inflation is potentially asymmetric. To capture the possibility of dynamic nonlinearity and, in turn, asymmetry, the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed lag model (NARDL) was deployed. This study has identified that the responses of stock return are generally asymmetric. In other words, the results suggest that contractionary time appears to reduce the stock returns more than expansionary time does.

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Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Stock return-inflation nexus; revisited evidence based on nonlinear ARDL

Alqaralleh

2020

Journal of Applied Economics

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“…The monthly data allow for the economic cycles to be assessed for the length of the cycle, peak values, trough values, and overall variability 38 . Classically, time-series assessments of business cycles must have at least 15 months of data, meaning that our historical assessments with over 10 years of data and the projections with over 70 years of data are sufficient to determine the parameters 73 . The time-series noise needs to be smoothed using the Savitsky−Golay filter in the TIMESAT program to determine the features of interest 74 .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Financial stability in response to climate change in a northern temperate economy

2021

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Climate change will have considerable impact on the global economy. Estimates of the economic damages due to climate change have focused on the effect of average temperature, but not the effect of other important climate variables. Related research has not explored the sub-annual economic cycles which may be impacted by climate volatility. To address these deficits, we propose a flexible, non-linear framework which includes a wide range of climate variables to estimate changes in GDP and project sub-annual economic cycle adjustments (period, amplitude, trough depth). We find that the inclusion of a more robust set of climate variables improves model performance by over 20%. Importantly, the improved model predicts an increase in GDP rather than a decrease when only temperature is considered. We also find that climate influences the sub-annual economics of all but one province in Canada. Highest stressed were the Prairie and Atlantic regions. Least stressed was the Southeastern region. Our study advances understanding of the nuances in the relationship between climate change and economic output in Canada. It also provides a method that can be applied to related economies globally to target adaptation and resilience management.

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“…Economic growth is one of the indicators in considering the economic conditions that occur in a region (Peterson, 2017) as well as an indicator in observing the business cycle (Alqaralleh, 2019). In the condition of the economy that continues to record positive growth, there are indications that in general all economic sectors have a trend to grow, including the agricultural sector.…”

Section: Hypotheses Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agricultural financing risk and ib agricultural financing: A long relationship

Alan Nur,

Honesty Nur Firdaus,

Armanto

et al. 2023

JIFA

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Indonesia is destined to be an agrarian country because of its location on the equator, unfortunately not all farmers are able to access capital for their agricultural businesses while the contribution of the agricultural sector to employment is very high. It is also important to consider that Indonesia is also a country with the largest Muslim population in the world, so there should be a financing scheme in the agricultural sector that is in accordance with sharia compliance. Therefore, Islamic banking should be present to provide capital to farmers who need agricultural financing without violating sharia provisions. Identifying variables that affect Islamic bank financing in the agricultural sector in the long run is the aim of this study so that our findings can be one of the considerations for policy makers for future policies. To reveal the purpose of our research, we consider the factors affecting the agricultural financing of Islamic banks which consist of the risk of agricultural financing, farmer welfare, inflation and economic growth with observations for a decade from 2012 to 2021 on a quarterly basis. By using ARDL estimation, our findings find that in the long run relationship the welfare of farmers has no effect, while the other remaining variables have a significant effect. This study offers valuable implications indicating that the presence of Islamic banking can be considered as a viable financial solution within the agricultural sector.

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Measuring business cycles: Empirical evidence based on an unobserved component approach

Cited by 6 publications

References 29 publications

Stock return-inflation nexus; revisited evidence based on nonlinear ARDL

Stock return-inflation nexus; revisited evidence based on nonlinear ARDL

Financial stability in response to climate change in a northern temperate economy

Agricultural financing risk and ib agricultural financing: A long relationship

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