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The current assessment of the Antarctic surface mass balance mostly relies on reanalysis products or climate model simulations. However, little is known about the ability of models to reliably represent the microphysical processes governing the precipitation. This study makes use of recent ground‐based precipitation measurements at Dumont d'Urville station in Adélie Land to evaluate the representation of the precipitation microphysics in the Polar version of the Weather Research Forecast (Polar WRF) atmospheric model. During two summertime snowfall events, high‐resolution simulations are compared to measurements from an X‐band polarimetric radar and from a Multi‐Angle Snowflake Camera (MASC). A radar simulator and a “MASC” simulator in Polar WRF make it possible to compare similar observed and simulated variables. Radiosoundings and surface‐meteorological observations were used to assess the representation of the regional dynamics in the model. Five different microphysical parameterizations are tested. The simulated temperature, wind, and humidity fields are in good agreement with the observations. However, the amount of simulated surface precipitation shows large discrepancies with respect to observations, and it strongly differs between the simulations themselves, evidencing the critical role of the microphysics. The inspection of vertical profiles of reflectivity and mixing ratios revealed that the representation of the sublimation process by the low‐level dry katabatic winds strongly influences the actual amount of precipitation at the ground surface. By comparing the simulated radar signal as well as MASC and model particle size distributions, it is also possible to identify the microphysical processes involved and to pinpoint shortcomings within the tested parameterizations.
The current assessment of the Antarctic surface mass balance mostly relies on reanalysis products or climate model simulations. However, little is known about the ability of models to reliably represent the microphysical processes governing the precipitation. This study makes use of recent ground‐based precipitation measurements at Dumont d'Urville station in Adélie Land to evaluate the representation of the precipitation microphysics in the Polar version of the Weather Research Forecast (Polar WRF) atmospheric model. During two summertime snowfall events, high‐resolution simulations are compared to measurements from an X‐band polarimetric radar and from a Multi‐Angle Snowflake Camera (MASC). A radar simulator and a “MASC” simulator in Polar WRF make it possible to compare similar observed and simulated variables. Radiosoundings and surface‐meteorological observations were used to assess the representation of the regional dynamics in the model. Five different microphysical parameterizations are tested. The simulated temperature, wind, and humidity fields are in good agreement with the observations. However, the amount of simulated surface precipitation shows large discrepancies with respect to observations, and it strongly differs between the simulations themselves, evidencing the critical role of the microphysics. The inspection of vertical profiles of reflectivity and mixing ratios revealed that the representation of the sublimation process by the low‐level dry katabatic winds strongly influences the actual amount of precipitation at the ground surface. By comparing the simulated radar signal as well as MASC and model particle size distributions, it is also possible to identify the microphysical processes involved and to pinpoint shortcomings within the tested parameterizations.
The performance of a set of atmospheric models and meteorological reanalyses in the representation of precipitation days in Antarctica is assessed using ground-based observations such as a precipitation gauge and a Micro Rain Radar during the Year Of Polar Prediction Special Observing Period at Dumont d'Urville (November 2018-February 2019), East Antarctic coast. The occurrence of precipitation is overall well predicted, but the number of days and intensity with snowfall are overestimated by the models. This is reflected by high values of bias, probability of detection, and false alarm ratios, in particular for reanalyses, due to too frequent simulated precipitating days. The Heidke skill score shows the overall great contribution of the models in the forecasting of precipitating days, and the best performances are achieved by numerical weather prediction models. The chronology is better represented when the models benefit from the data assimilation of in-situ observations, such as in reanalysis or weather forecasting models. Precipitation amounts at the surface are overestimated by most of the models. In addition, data from a ground-based radar make it possible to evaluate the representation of the vertical profiles of snowfall rate.We can show that an excessive sublimation in the atmospheric boundary layer can compensate for overly strong precipitation flux in the mid and low troposphere. Therefore, the need to expand the measurement of precipitation across the atmospheric column using radars is highlighted, in particular in Antarctica where the cold cloud microphysics is poorly known and observations are particularly rare.
We review recent literature on atmospheric, surface ocean and sea-ice observations and modeling results in the Antarctic sector and relate the observed climatic trends with the potential changes in the surface mass balance (SMB) of the ice sheet since 1900. Estimates of regional scale SMB distribution and trends remain subject to large uncertainties. Approaches combining and comparing multiple satellite and model-based assessments of ice sheet mass balance aim at reducing these knowledge gaps. During the last decades, significant changes in atmospheric circulation occurred around Antarctica, due to the exceptional positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode and to the climate variability observed in the tropical Pacific at the end of the twentieth century. Even though climate over the East Antarctic Ice-Sheet remained quite stable, a warming and precipitation increase was observed over the West Antarctic Ice-Sheet and over the West Antarctic Peninsula (AP) during the twentieth century. However, the high regional climate variability overwhelms climate changes associated to human drivers of global temperature changes, as reflected by a slight recent decadal cooling trend over the AP. Climate models still fail to accurately reproduce the multi-decadal SMB trends at a regional scale, and progress has to be achieved in reproducing atmospheric circulation changes related to complex ocean/ice/atmosphere interactions. Complex processes are also still insufficiently considered, such as (1) specific polar atmospheric processes (clouds, drifting snow, and stable boundary layer physics), (2) surface firn physics involved in the surface drag variations, or in firn air depletion and albedo feedbacks. Finally, progress in reducing the uncertainties relative to projections of the future SMB of Antarctica will largely depend on climate model capability to correctly consider teleconnections with low and mid-latitudes, and on the ability to correct them for biases, taking into account the coupling between ocean, ice, and atmosphere in high southern latitudes. Keywords Surface mass balance. Antarctica. Climate change. Regional modeling This article is part of the Topical Collection on Glaciology and Climate Change
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