Measurement of Detection Rate Accuracy in Forecasting Crude Palm Oil Production using Fuzzy Time Series

Lubis, Arif Ridho; Prayudani, Santi; Fatmi, Yulia; Al-Khowarizmi, Al-Khowarizmi; Julham, -; Lase, Yuyun Yusnida

doi:10.1109/icitech50181.2021.9590172

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…The test results were carried out using MAPE to predict CPO prices with an accuracy of 0.01781302%. Time series testing on CPO price data with the best accuracy is calculated using MAPE without involving other model combinations [18]. The prediction model can also predict the production of palm oil in companies which varies each The results of the research on predictions the palm oil production in this company vary each period, so the problem that often occurs is insufficient supply and demand.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyze the Clustering and Predicting Results of Palm Oil Production in Aceh Utara

Ula¹,

Perdinanta²,

Hidayat³

et al. 2023

Indonesian J. Comput. Cybern. Syst.

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PT. Perkebunan Nusantara 1 is a company that works in palm oil mills with a total land area of 1,144 Ha in Aceh Utara. This research aimed to determine the cluster of the productive palm oil production's target. The expected results of palm oil production are for the following year so that it can be used as a recommendation for the managers to maximize performance. Research data are taken from PTPTN 1 PKS Cot Girek consisting of plantation and oil palm production data. The results of PKS Cot Girek palm oil production data for 2019-2022 from January to December were 1,365,530, while in 2022, it reached 1,768,720. The overall value obtained is 4,431,180 production data. The results of a land area of 1,144 Ha got 800.4 Ha of productive land and 343.6 Ha of less effective land. The test result in the first iteration of the C-Means process is 1.87, the second iteration is 3.87, the first iteration of the K-Means is 2.27, and the seventh iteration is 4.165 with an accuracy of 0.46 and 0.295. Meanwhile, the prediction model results have an accuracy rate of 90.77%. As a comparison, the fuzzy time series' accuracy level is 81.27%.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%