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We explore the impact of socio-demographic change on marriage patterns in India by examining the hypothetical consequences of applying three sets of marriage pairing propensities – contemporary patterns by age, by age and education, and changing propensities that allow for greater educational homogamy and reduced educational asymmetries – to future population projections. Future population prospects for India indicate three trends that will impact marriage patterns: i) female-deficit in sex ratios at birth; ii) declining birth cohort size; iii) female educational expansion. Existing literature posits declining marriage rates for men arising from skewed sex ratios at birth (SRB) in India’s population. In addition to skewed SRBs, India’s population will experience female educational expansion in the coming decades. Female educational expansion and its impact on marriage patterns must be jointly considered with demographic changes, given educational differentials and asymmetries in union formation that exist in India, as across much of the world. We systematize contemporary pairing propensities using data from the 2005–2006 Indian National Family Health Survey and the 2004 Socio-Economic Survey and apply these and the third set of changing propensities to IIASA/VID multi-state population projections by educational attainment using an iterative longitudinal projection procedure. If today’s age patterns of marriage are viewed against age-sex population composition until 2050, men experience declining marriage prevalence. However, when education is included, women, particularly those with higher education experience a more salient rise in non-marriage. Significant changes in pairing patterns towards greater levels of educational homogamy and gender symmetry can counteract a marked rise in non-marriage.
We explore the impact of socio-demographic change on marriage patterns in India by examining the hypothetical consequences of applying three sets of marriage pairing propensities – contemporary patterns by age, by age and education, and changing propensities that allow for greater educational homogamy and reduced educational asymmetries – to future population projections. Future population prospects for India indicate three trends that will impact marriage patterns: i) female-deficit in sex ratios at birth; ii) declining birth cohort size; iii) female educational expansion. Existing literature posits declining marriage rates for men arising from skewed sex ratios at birth (SRB) in India’s population. In addition to skewed SRBs, India’s population will experience female educational expansion in the coming decades. Female educational expansion and its impact on marriage patterns must be jointly considered with demographic changes, given educational differentials and asymmetries in union formation that exist in India, as across much of the world. We systematize contemporary pairing propensities using data from the 2005–2006 Indian National Family Health Survey and the 2004 Socio-Economic Survey and apply these and the third set of changing propensities to IIASA/VID multi-state population projections by educational attainment using an iterative longitudinal projection procedure. If today’s age patterns of marriage are viewed against age-sex population composition until 2050, men experience declining marriage prevalence. However, when education is included, women, particularly those with higher education experience a more salient rise in non-marriage. Significant changes in pairing patterns towards greater levels of educational homogamy and gender symmetry can counteract a marked rise in non-marriage.
Marriage squeeze is a demographic phenomenon underlining the asymmetry between the availability of potential brides and grooms in a population. Since mate selection is very specific and bound by religion, caste, and region in India, existing demographic and sociocultural variability reflects even more emphatically on marriage squeeze in these subgroups. The last round of the Indian census (2011) was used for this study. To capture the marriage squeeze, the study utilized two methods—Schoen’s method of two-sex life table and the sex ratio method. At present, India is experiencing a marriage squeeze for males in rural as well as urban areas. Differences have been observed in the tightness of marriage squeeze across different subgroups of the population. The tightness of the male marriage squeeze is greater among Hindus than Muslims in the age group 15–45. In terms of caste, the scheduled tribes are experiencing a higher scarcity of brides than “other” castes; conversely, scheduled caste brides are experiencing a scarcity of grooms. Across the states, a higher tightness of marriage squeeze among males is observed in Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Mizoram, and Haryana compared to the rest of the states. The rapid changes that occurred in the sex ratio in the past few decades are visible in the initial two cohorts of marriageable age. Variations in marriage squeeze across different social groups are mainly driven by alterations in the natural sex ratio and the changing pattern of marriage in India.
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