Maxent Modelling Predicts a Shift in Suitable Habitats of a Subtropical Evergreen Tree (Cyclobalanopsis glauca (Thunberg) Oersted) under Climate Change Scenarios in China

Abstract

Climate change has caused substantial shifts in the geographical distribution of many species. There is growing evidence that many species are migrating in response to climate change. Changes in the distribution of dominant tree species induced by climate change can have an impact not only on organisms such as epiphytes and understory vegetation, but also on the whole ecosystem. Cyclobalanopsis glauca is a dominant tree species in the mingled evergreen and deciduous broadleaf forests of China. Understanding their adaptive strategies against climate change is important for understanding the future community structure. We employed the Maxent framework to model current suitable habitats of C. glauca under current climate conditions and predicted it onto the climate scenarios for 2041–2060 and 2081–2100 using 315 occurrence data. Our results showed that annual precipitation was the most critical factor for the distribution of C. glauca. In the future, increasing precipitation would reduce the limitation of water on habitats, leading to an expansion of the distribution to a higher latitude and higher altitude. At the same time, there were habitat contractions at the junction of the Jiangxi and Fujian Provinces. This study can provide vital information for the management of C. glauca, and serve as a reminder for managers to protect C. glauca in the range contraction areas.

Effects of climate‐change scenarios on the distribution patterns of Castanea henryi

“…From various MaxEnt modeling studies, two main generalizations could be distilled. First, the species' suitable habitats tended to move northwards (in the northern hemisphere) under the influence of future climate change (Akyol et al, 2020 ; Zhang, Zhu, et al, 2022 ). Second, different species were specific in their response to climate change, resulting in a spectrum of suitable habitat changes ranging from expansion to shrinkage compared with the current patterns (Gebrewahid et al, 2020 ; Pramanik et al, 2018 ).…”

“…This temperature control of the germinal stage may constitute a principal limiting factor of its spread. The temperature constraint on the distribution of several Fagaceae species has been demonstrated (Çoban et al, 2020 ; Conedera et al, 2004 ; Deng et al, 2018 ; Fang & Lechowicz, 2006 ; Li et al, 2016 ; G. Liu & Fang, 2000 ; Tulowiecki, 2020 ; Zhang, Zhu, et al, 2022 ). Figures 5 and 6 show a tendency of C. henryi to move its suitable habitats toward the eastern and northern regions of China, a process that could be driven by global warming.…”

“…In response to future climate change, the distribution area of some species may increase, such as Pinus pinea (Akyol et al, 2020 ), O. abyssinica (Gebrewahid et al, 2020 ), and Cyclobalanopsis glauca (Zhang, Zhu, et al, 2022 ), including C. henryi . However, other species' ranges would contract due to global warming (Abdelaal et al, 2019 ; Abolmaali et al, 2018 ; Abrha et al, 2018 ).…”

“…In the fair tier, the potential distribution area of each climate scenario reduces notably compared with the current pattern, such as 5.59% (51.32 × 10 be distilled. First, the species' suitable habitats tended to move northwards (in the northern hemisphere) under the influence of future climate change (Akyol et al, 2020;Zhang, Zhu, et al, 2022).…”

First assessment of Iranian pomegranate germplasm using targeted metabolites and morphological traits to develop the core collection and modeling of the current and future spatial distribution under climate change conditions

“…Hence, the potential future distribution of pomegranate in Iran was predicted using the MaxEnt model. Some researchers have used this model to predict the spatial distribution of tree species under future climatic conditions [49,105,106].…”