Mathematics for Scenarios of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

Doyen, Luc

doi:10.1007/s10666-018-9632-4

Cited by 8 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Predictive fishing scenario, denoted by PS: This scenario simulates fishing effort based on the assumption that the fishery and all of its fleets will maintain their current dynamics. Using a first-order approximation of current fishing-effort trends for the various fleets over the period 2006-2018, the PS runs as follows [21]:…”

Section: Fishing and Climate Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Even if the model takes into account the uncertainty through the two climate scenarios, many other uncertainties including observation uncertainty, parameter uncertainty and model structural uncertainty are here neglected. Ongoing works expanding the model and the analysis by accounting for other uncertainties in the framework of 'decision under uncertainty' and 'resilience management' as in Doyen [21] or Grafton et al [31] should reinforce the relevance and reliability of the model and the scenarios. Furthermore, our choice of a long temporal horizon (T = 2100) is also open to adjustment.…”

Section: Limitations Of the Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Such a lengthy timeframe clearly compounds the uncertainties underlying ecosystem and fishery dynamics. There may be a need to explicitly account for uncertainties in the model and scenarios through stochastic approaches, as in Doyen [21].…”

Section: Limitations Of the Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…He suggests that the species with the lowest resource requirement at equilibrium will displace all other species. This result is known as the 'exclusion principle' [21]. Examples of species competition and exclusion principle in fisheries can be found in Daan [18] and Botsford [4].…”

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confidence: 99%

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The Major Roles of Climate Warming and Ecological Competition in the Small-scale Coastal Fishery in French Guiana

Gomes

Kersulec

Doyen

et al. 2021

Environ Model Assess

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Marine ecosystems, biodiversity, and fisheries are under strain worldwide due to global changes including climate warming and demographic pressure. To address this issue, many scientists and stakeholders advocate the use of an ecosystem approach for fisheries that integrates the numerous ecological and economic complexities at play rather than focusing on the management of individual target species. However, the operationalization of such an ecosystem approach remains challenging, especially from a bio-economic standpoint. Here, to address this issue, we propose a model of intermediate complexity (MICE) relying on multi-species, multi-fleet, and resource-based dynamics. Climate change effects are incorporated through an envelope model for the biological growth of fish species as a function of sea surface temperature. The model is calibrated for the small-scale fishery in French Guiana using a time series of fish landings and fishing effort from 2006 to 2018. From the calibrated model, a predictive fishing effort projection and RCP climate scenarios derived from IPCC, we explore the ecosystem dynamics and the fishery production at the horizon 2100. Our results demonstrate the long-term detrimental impact of both climate change and ecological competition on fish biodiversity. The prognosis is particularly catastrophic under the most pessimistic climate scenario, with a potential collapse of both biomass targeted species and fishing activity by 2100.

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Section: Fishing and Climate Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Limitations Of the Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Limitations Of the Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Major Roles of Climate Warming and Ecological Competition in the Small-scale Coastal Fishery in French Guiana

Gomes

Kersulec

Doyen

et al. 2021

Environ Model Assess

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“…In this study, we developed a bio-economic model to explore different SIA scenarios based on land use allocation that included croplands, grasslands or woodlands. We assessed the performance of each according to a range of ecosystem services as recommended in Clark (1982), Doyen (2018), Wätzold et al (2006). We captured the ecosystem services through land use/land cover (LULC) metrics (Kassawmar et al 2018), landscape metrics and economic metrics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contribution of the land use allocation model for agroecosystems: The case of Torrecchia Vecchia

Elalamy

Doyen

Mouysset

2019

Journal of Environmental Management

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Climate-dependent scenarios of land use for biodiversity and ecosystem services in the New Aquitaine region

Andriamanantena

Gaufreteau

et al. 2022

Reg Environ Change

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The synergies and trade-offs between human well-being, biodiversity, and ecosystem services are under debate for the design of more sustainable public policies. In that perspective, there is a need of quantitative methods to compare all these outcomes under alternative policy scenarios. The present paper provides scenarios at the horizon 2053 for the New-Aquitaine region in France. They rely on spatio-temporal models derived from individual land-use choices under climate change. The models are estimated at the national level from 1993-2003 fine-scale data. We focus on farming, forestry, and urban land-uses along with bird biodiversity scores and a basket of ecosystem services namely carbon sink intensity, forest recreation, and water pollution. A 'climate-economic adaptation' scenario shows that climate-induced land-use worsens the negative effects of climate change on biodiversity and several ecosystem services in the long run as compared to a 'status quo' scenario. Another scenario with an incentive policy, based on a flat payment for pastures, slightly mitigates these negative impacts on biodiversity and water pollution. However, this turns out to be detrimental for other ecosystem services. This result confirms that the design of sustainable policies can not be limited to uniform strategies and should account for the complexity of ecosystem management.

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Mathematics for Scenarios of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

Cited by 8 publications

References 42 publications

The Major Roles of Climate Warming and Ecological Competition in the Small-scale Coastal Fishery in French Guiana

The Major Roles of Climate Warming and Ecological Competition in the Small-scale Coastal Fishery in French Guiana

Contribution of the land use allocation model for agroecosystems: The case of Torrecchia Vecchia

Climate-dependent scenarios of land use for biodiversity and ecosystem services in the New Aquitaine region

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