Mathematical predictive relationship of CD4+ lymphocytes and total leukocytes in HIV-infected patients

Abstract

Introduction: Different parameters have been established to direct the treatment of patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, such as CD4+ lymphocyte values, and it is of clinical interest to have methodologies that accurately predict these values. Aim of the study was to predict the total values of leukocytes and CD4+ lymphocytes greater than 500 cells/μl 3 in HIV-infected patients using the theory of probability and set theory. Material and methods:Starting from 7 cases with several records over time, an induction was performed establishing mathematical patterns between CD4+ lymphocyte values and total leukocyte values, while applying the probability theory to calculate predictive accuracy in 43 cases, and subsequently, sensitivity and specificity were calculated in a blinded study. Results:In total, 184 records were analyzed for 50 cases. The values of total leukocytes equal to or greater than 3.9 cells/mm 3 were predicted to correspond to CD4+ lymphocyte values greater than 500 cells/μl 3 in 100% of time, with sensitivity and specificity results of 100%.Conclusions: This is the first investigation with the theory of probability, in which predictions were made from leukocyte values equal to or greater than 3.9 cells/mm 3 to find CD4+ lymphocyte counts. A predictive probabilistic methodology was developed, and determined results for the calculated ranges were found.