Mathematical Models for Cholera Dynamics—A Review

Abstract

Cholera remains a significant public health burden in many countries and regions of the world, highlighting the need for a deeper understanding of the mechanisms associated with its transmission, spread, and control. Mathematical modeling offers a valuable research tool to investigate cholera dynamics and explore effective intervention strategies. In this article, we provide a review of the current state in the modeling studies of cholera. Starting from an introduction of basic cholera transmission models and their applications, we survey model extensions in several directions that include spatial and temporal heterogeneities, effects of disease control, impacts of human behavior, and multi-scale infection dynamics. We discuss some challenges and opportunities for future modeling efforts on cholera dynamics, and emphasize the importance of collaborations between different modeling groups and different disciplines in advancing this research area.

Mathematical modeling of cholera dynamics with intrinsic growth considering constant interventions

“…However, the main gap in the existing mathematical models of cholera are there is no mathematical model that incorporated both bacterial intrinsic growth and intervention strategies. This gap is also available in the recent publications by 14 , 16 .…”

“…The main symptom of cholera is severe acute watery diarrhoea that lasts for three to seven days. If treatment is delayed, this can lead to excessive and fast dehydration and possibly death 1 – 12 , 14 – 20 .…”

“…In an effort to understand the fundamentals of the spread of cholera and to quantify effective control strategies, a large number of mathematical models for the dynamics of bacterial spreading have been created. To more properly depict the pattern of the disease infection spread, a few of these models included two types of infection routes 1 – 11 , 14 , 16 , 25 . However, a significant drawback of the modelling studies that are currently being conducted on the transmission of cholera is the lack of attention given to the intrinsic dynamics of the bacteria, which results in an inadequate comprehension of the development of the bacteria and how it affects the dynamics of infection.…”

“…These ecological findings require more modelling effort to better understand the internal dynamics of cholera diseases and the connection between environmental persistence and disease outbreaks 16 . In 14 , 16 , efforts are done to develop and analyze mathematical models considering bacterial intrinsic growth. However, the main gap in the existing mathematical models of cholera are there is no mathematical model that incorporated both bacterial intrinsic growth and intervention strategies.…”

“…Our goal in this work is to develop and analyze a mathematical model that incorporates both bacterial intrinsic growth and intervention strategies with an intention to fill the gap in 14 , 16 . Such kind of mathematical model will provide valuable advice for efficient preventive and intervention techniques against cholera outbreaks.…”