Mathematical Modelling of Radicalization And Terrorism Dynamics in the Central Sahel

Abstract

The increase in violence has created an unprecedented crisis in the Sahel, particularly the Central Sahel, with massive displacement of populations already vulnerable to climatic hazards. This paper aims to propose a mathematical model of the ordinary differential equation system that will reflect the dynamics of terrorism and internal displacement. Sobol's sensitivity analysis of the model's parameters will allow us to make proposals for reducing terrorism. Military actions alone do not contribute effectively for fight against terrorism because they only contribute less than 20\%. Radicalization prevention and de-radicalization strategies must be adopted jointly to effectively reduce the spread of terrorism because they contribute more than 80\% on the fight against terrorism.