Mathematical modeling of the population dynamics of different age-group workers in the regional economy

Khavinson, Michael Jurevich; Кулаков, М.П.

doi:10.20537/2076-7633-2014-6-3-441-454

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Поскольку, для квазикорпораций ядром рационального финансирования является областной бюджет, то можно выделить дополнительно основные направления развития области с целью увеличения качества жизни населения, на которые должны ориентироваться органы государственной и муниципальной власти [6][7][8] (рис. 1).…”

Section: экономическое обоснование результатовunclassified

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Economic Development of Quasi-Corporations, on the Example of the Novosibirsk Region

Aksenyushkina,

Mamonova

2023

System Analysis &Amp; Mathematical Modeling

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One of the priorities of our state is the effective financing of the regional economy. Not always directed financial flows fulfill state expectations and generate stable development of the regional economy. The research revealed that a single approach to financing regions does not represent the best strategy aimed at the development of the subjects of the Russian Federation as a whole. The study examined Novosibirsk region and analyzed various socio-economic factors affecting the gross regional product. Constructed factor models reflect the interrelation of factors influencing the economic growth of the region. In the conducted study, data for 2000-2020 was used, which made it possible to accurately assess the features of the region. Based on the analysis of the constructed models, we built a scheme of competent financing of various areas of development of the region, which will further achieve economic growth of Novosibirsk region by increasing the domestic regional product. The study found that high economic indicators of the regions generate their own approaches and principles in the financing of the regions enabling us to develop a competent policy of economic development of the state.

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Section: экономическое обоснование результатовunclassified

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Economic Development of Quasi-Corporations, on the Example of the Novosibirsk Region

Aksenyushkina,

Mamonova

2023

System Analysis &Amp; Mathematical Modeling

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“…Численности занятых x, безработных y и экономически неактивного населения z являются одними из важных индикаторов развития региональной социально-экономической системы. Реализуемые в статье подходы моделирования их динамики базируются на принципе парных взаимодействий, который вышел из химической кинетики и нашел применение, в частности, в моделях живых систем [Вольтерра, 1976; Базыкин, 1985; Рубин и др., 1987; Ризниченко, Рубин, 2004 1общества [Романовский, Романовский, 2012;Андреев, Семёнов, 2013;Хавинсон и др., 2013;Хавинсон, Кулаков, 2014;Khavinson, Kulakov, 2017]. В этом подходе парные взаимодействия типа xy, xz, yz описывают обмен информацией, во многом обусловленный социально-экономической ситуацией в регионе (коэффициенты η i j ) (рис.…”

Section: описание модели содержательный смысл коэффициентов уравненийunclassified

“…выражают относительную значимость частных критериев оптимизационной задачи [Хавинсон, Кулаков, 2014;Khavinson, Kulakov, 2017]. Система (1) с набором значений параметров, наиболее хорошо описывающих статистические данные, имеет следующий вид:…”

Section: параметрическая идентификация модели на статистических данныunclassified

Modeling the number of employed, unemployed and economically inactive population in the Russian Far East

Khavinson¹,

Losev²,

Кулаков³

2021

CRM

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Studies of the crisis socio-demographic situation in the Russian Far East require not only the use of traditional statistical methods, but also a conceptual analysis of possible development scenarios based on the synergy principles. The article is devoted to the analysis and modeling of the number of employed, unemployed and economically inactive population using nonlinear autonomous differential equations. We studied a basic mathematical model that takes into account the principle of pair interactions, which is a special case of the model for the struggle between conditional information of D. S. Chernavsky. The point estimates for the parameters are found using least squares method adapted for this model. The average approximation error was no more than 5.17%. The calculated parameter values correspond to the unstable focus and the oscillations with increasing amplitude of population number in the asymptotic case, which indicates a gradual increase in disparities between the employed, unemployed and economically inactive population and a collapse of their dynamics. We found that in the parametric space, not far from the inertial scenario, there are domains of blow-up and chaotic regimes complicating the ability to effectively manage. The numerical study showed that a change in only one model parameter (e.g. migration) without complex structural socioeconomic changes can only delay the collapse of the dynamics in the long term or leads to the emergence of unpredictable chaotic regimes. We found an additional set of the model parameters corresponding to sustainable dynamics (stable focus) which approximates well the time series of the considered population groups. In the mathematical model, the bifurcation parameters are the outflow rate of the able-bodied population, the fertility ("rejuvenation of the population"), as well as the migration inflow rate of the unemployed. We found that the transition to stable regimes is possible with the simultaneous impact on several parameters which requires a comprehensive set of measures to consolidate the population in the Russian Far East and increase the level of income in terms of compensation for infrastructure sparseness. Further economic and sociological research is required to develop specific state policy measures.

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Mathematical modeling of the age groups of employed peoples by the example of the southern regions of the Russian Far East

Khavinson¹,

Кулаков²,

Frisman³

2016

CRM

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Mathematical modeling of the population dynamics of different age-group workers in the regional economy

Cited by 4 publications

References 10 publications

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Economic Development of Quasi-Corporations, on the Example of the Novosibirsk Region

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Economic Development of Quasi-Corporations, on the Example of the Novosibirsk Region

Modeling the number of employed, unemployed and economically inactive population in the Russian Far East

Mathematical modeling of the age groups of employed peoples by the example of the southern regions of the Russian Far East

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