Mathematical modeling of mpox: a scoping review

Abstract

Background: Mpox (monkeypox), a disease historically endemic to Africa, has seen its largest outbreak in 2022 by spreading to many regions of the world and has become a public health threat. Informed policies aimed at controlling and managing the spread of this disease necessitate the use of adequate mathematical modelling strategies. Objective: In this scoping review, we sought to identify the mathematical models that have been used to study mpox transmission in the literature in order to determine what are the model classes most frequently used, their assumptions, and the modelling gaps that need to be addressed in the context of the epidemiological characteristics of the ongoing mpox outbreak. Methods: This study employed the methodology of the PRISMA guidelines for scoping reviews to identify the mathematical models available to study mpox transmission dynamics. Three databases (PubMed, Web of Science and MathSciNet) were systematically searched to identify relevant studies. Results: A total of 5827 papers were screened from the database queries. After screening, 35 studies that met the inclusion criteria were analyzed, and 19 were finally included in the scoping review. Our results show that compartmental, branching process, Monte Carlo (stochastic), agent-based, and network models have been used to study mpox transmission dynamics between humans as well as between humans and animals. Furthermore, compartmental and branching models have been the most commonly used classes. Conclusions: There is a need to develop modelling strategies for mpox transmission that take into account the conditions of the current outbreak, which has been largely driven by human-to-human transmission in urban settings. In the current scenario, the assumptions and parameters used by most of the studies included in this review (which are largely based on a limited number of studies carried in Africa in the early 80s) may not be applicable, and therefore, can complicate any public health policies that are derived from their estimates. The current mpox outbreak is also an example of how more research into neglected zoonoses is needed in an era where new and re-emerging diseases have become global public health threats.

Evaluation of three control strategies to limit mpox outbreaks in an agent based model

“…Our approach is novel in that we are not aware of other ABMs that address mpox spread among MSMs. ABMs can be relatively more flexible and naturalistic compared to other modelling approaches 46 , explicitly incorporating heterogeneity of agent attributes and behaviour choices 47 . ABMs are designed to reveal emergent phenomena 46 and thus may provide novel insights to epidemic dynamics.…”

“…We used published information to construct all of the control scenarios, two of the scenarios emulated published data about partner count reductions and vaccination delivery. These ABM advantages come with a price in that they are computationally exhaustive 47 and with our software platform, meant that the agent population needed to be restricted (to 6400 agents) to generate many strategy and scenario outcomes in a reasonable timeframe.…”

The need for pre-emptive control strategies for mpox in Asia and Oceania

“…7 −9). Our model structure accommodates for the heavy-tailed sexual partner distribution with heterogenous mixing ( Endo et al., 2022 ) and contextualises the heterogeneous sexual behaviour within the different MSM networks ( Molla et al., 2022 ). With few studies conducted on sexual contact degrees ( Multi-Country Outbreak of mpox ), and the lack of mpox modelling in non-endemic countries ( Sewell et al., 2020 ), our study aims to build on available data to assist in policy making in countries with large susceptible populations, such as Asia and Oceania.…”

Supercritical and homogenous transmission of monkeypox in the capital of China

“…To estimate the development of Mpox epidemic and to design appropriate control measures, it is essential to understand the dynamics of Mpox transmission in mainland China. Since the 2022 Mpox outbreaks in several countries, a variety of quantitative models, including compartment models, branching process models, agent‐based models, network models, and logistic model, have been used to characterize the transmission of Mpox in Europe, America, and other areas 5–8 . These models contained assumptions about the transmission of Mpox with varying degrees of complexity and could therefore be useful in estimating transmission‐related quantities such as the effective reproduction number (denoted as R e ) at different scales or under different conditions.…”