Mathematical Modeling Forecasting of Consequences of Damage Breakthrough

Abstract

The article is devoted to the development of a mathematical model for preventing a breakthrough of a dam and predict its possible consequences. In this work, the task of developing a single integrated approach to ensuring the safe operation of hydraulic structures, based on the notification of interested bodies in real time, was solved. A mathematical model of the state of the reservoir is developed, on the basis of which a hardware-software complex for operational notification of interested organizations (akimats) and local emergency departments is implemented. A mathematical model of predicting the consequences of a dam break is proposed. An algorithm for calculating the maximum level of the breakout wave has been formulated, taking into account many parameters of the hydraulic structures. The convergence of the developed algorithm in the form of a theorem has been proved. This method has a large practical focus, compared with existing formulas. The Java language implements a hardware-software complex (PAC) for predicting the effects of a dam break, consisting of the following modules: 1) a module for receiving and transmitting current information about the water level, humidity and temperature on the crest of the dam; 2) a module for processing constant and operational information about the threat of dam breakthrough (server); 3) a module for predicting the effects of a dam break. Based on the solution of the model problem, the effectiveness of the developed hardware-software complex is shown. The practical basis for the model task was the events that took place in Kyzylagash village of Almaty region of the Republic of Kazakhstan.