Mathematical Modeling and Optimal Control Analysis of COVID-19 in Ethiopia

Alemneh, Haileyesus Tessema; Tilahun, Getachew Teshome

doi:10.1101/2020.07.23.20160473

Cited by 11 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Previous studies show that distancing strategy is the best strategy for the single control strategy implementation to decrease disease burden and intervention costs [33,42,47], which is similar to our results. However, our finding also suggests that combining three control strategy is the most effective way to decrease the measles burden of Bangladesh, consistent with previous works [33,48,49].…”

Section: Plos Onesupporting

confidence: 92%

Analysis of the different interventions scenario for programmatic measles control in Bangladesh: A modelling study

et al. 2023

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In recent years measles has been one of the most critical public health problem in Bangladesh. Although the Ministry of Health in Bangladesh employs a broad extension of measles control policies, logistical challenges exist, and there is significant doubt regarding the disease burden. Mathematical modelling of measles is considered one of the most effective ways to understand infection transmission and estimate parameters in different countries, such as Bangladesh. In this study, a mathematical modelling framework is presented to explore the dynamics of measles in Bangladesh. We calibrated the model using cumulative measles incidence data from 2000 to 2019. Also, we performed a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters and found that the contact rate had the most significant influence on the basic reproduction number R0. Four hypothetical intervention scenarios were developed and simulated for the period from 2020 to 2035. The results show that the scenario which combines enhanced treatment for exposed and infected population, first and second doses of vaccine is the most effective at rapidly reducing the total number of measles incidence and mortality in Bangladesh. Our findings also suggest that strategies that focus on a single interventions do not dramatically affect the decline in measles incidence cases; instead, those that combine two or more interventions simultaneously are the most effective in decreasing the burden of measles incidence and mortality. In addition, we also evaluated the cost-effectiveness of varying combinations of three basic control strategies including distancing, vaccination and treatment, all within the optimal control framework. Our finding suggested that combines distancing, vaccination and treatment control strategy is the most cost-effective for reducing the burden of measles in Bangladesh. Other strategies can be comprised to measles depending on the availability of funds and policymakers’ choices.

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Section: Plos Onesupporting

confidence: 92%

Analysis of the different interventions scenario for programmatic measles control in Bangladesh: A modelling study

et al. 2023

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“…In this study, a modified SEIR model was developed to project the number of COVID-19 cases with different stages of the disease under the implementation of wearing face masks, hand washing and physical distancing with varying adherence levels in both urban and rural populations of Ethiopia. Unlike other mathematical modeling studies done in the context of Ethiopia [ 23 , 24 , 45 ], this study provides projected numbers of all active cases, symptomatic and asymptomatic cases and ICU cases at the peak time of the pandemic. The projected number of people in each stage of the disease at the peak period and the time of the peak in urban and rural areas of Ethiopia helps the government to choose and enforce better intervention mechanisms.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) on the dynamics of COVID-19: A mathematical modelling study of the case of Ethiopia

et al. 2021

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The World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020 and by November 14, 2020 there were 53.3M confirmed cases and 1.3M reported deaths in the world. In the same period, Ethiopia reported 102K cases and 1.5K deaths. Effective public health preparedness and response to COVID-19 requires timely projections of the time and size of the peak of the outbreak. Currently, Ethiopia under the COVAX facility has begun vaccinating high risk populations but due to vaccine supply shortages and the absence of an effective treatment, the implementation of NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions), like hand washing, wearing face coverings or social distancing, still remain the most effective methods of controlling the pandemic as recommended by WHO. This study proposes a modified Susceptible Exposed Infected and Recovered (SEIR) model to predict the number of COVID-19 cases at different stages of the disease under the implementation of NPIs at different adherence levels in both urban and rural settings of Ethiopia. To estimate the number of cases and their peak time, 30 different scenarios were simulated. The results indicated that the peak time of the pandemic is different in urban and rural populations of Ethiopia. In the urban population, under moderate implementation of three NPIs the pandemic will be expected to reach its peak in December, 2020 with 147,972 cases, of which 18,100 are symptomatic and 957 will require admission to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Among the implemented NPIs, increasing the coverage of wearing masks by 10% could reduce the number of new cases on average by one-fifth in urban-populations. Varying the coverage of wearing masks in rural populations minimally reduces the number of cases. In conclusion, the models indicate that the projected number of hospital cases during the peak time is higher than the Ethiopian health system capacity. To contain symptomatic and ICU cases within the health system capacity, the government should pay attention to the strict implementation of the existing NPIs or impose additional public health measures.

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“…In this study, a modified SEIR model was developed to project the number of COVID-19 cases with different stage of the disease under the implementation of wearing face masks, hand washing and physical distancing with varying adherence levels in both urban and rural populations of Ethiopia. Unlike other mathematical modeling studies done in the context of Ethiopia Siraj et al (2020); Alemneh and Telahun (2020); Takele (2020), this study provides projected number of all active cases, symptomatic and asymptomatic cases and ICU cases at the peak time of the pandemic. The projected number of people in each stage of the disease at the peak period and the time of the peak in urban and rural areas of Ethiopia helps the government to choose and enforce better intervention mechanisms.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) on the dynamics of COVID-19: A mathematical modelling study in the case of Ethiopia

Ejigu

Asfaw

Cavaleri

et al. 2020

Preprint

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The World Health Organisation (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020 and by November 14, 2020 there were 53.3M confirmed cases and 1.3M reported deaths in the world. In the same period, Ethiopia reported 102K cases and 1.5K deaths. Effective public health preparedness and response to COVID-19 requires timely projections of the time and size of the peak of the outbreak. Currently, in the absence of vaccine or effective treatment, the implementation of NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions), like hand washing, wearing face coverings or social distancing, is recommended by WHO to bring the pandemic under control. This study proposes a modified Susceptible Exposed Infected and Recovered (SEIR) model to predict the number of COVID-19 cases at different stages of the disease under the implementation of NPIs with different adherence levels in both urban and rural settings of Ethiopia. To estimate the number of cases and their peak time, 30 different scenarios were simulated. The results reveal that the peak time of the pandemic is different in urban and rural populations of Ethiopia. In the urban population, under moderate implementation of three NPIs the pandemic will be expected to reach its peak in December, 2020 with 147,972 cases, of which 18,100 are symptomatic and 957 will require admission to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Among the implemented NPIs, increasing the coverage of wearing masks by 10% could reduce the number of new cases on average by one-fifth in urban-populations. Varying the coverage of wearing masks in rural populations minimally reduces the number of cases. In conclusion, the projection result reveals that the projected number of hospital cases is higher than the Ethiopian health system capacity during the peak time. To contain symptomatic and ICU cases within health system capacity, the government should give attention to the strict implementation of the existing NPIs or impose additional public health measures.

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Mathematical Modeling and Optimal Control Analysis of COVID-19 in Ethiopia

Cited by 11 publications

References 21 publications

Analysis of the different interventions scenario for programmatic measles control in Bangladesh: A modelling study

Analysis of the different interventions scenario for programmatic measles control in Bangladesh: A modelling study

Assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) on the dynamics of COVID-19: A mathematical modelling study of the case of Ethiopia

Assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) on the dynamics of COVID-19: A mathematical modelling study in the case of Ethiopia

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