Mathematical modeling and analysis of the SARS-Cov-2 disease with reinfection

Asghar, Atifa; Khan, Muhammad Altaf; Iskakova, Kulpash; Al-Duais, Fuad S.; Ahmad, Irshad

doi:10.1016/j.compbiolchem.2022.107678

Cited by 15 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Moreover, waning effects can impair effectiveness of such strategies [ 38 ], highlighting the importance of CT even if vaccination can be applied. Including waning immunity following vaccination and infection in agent-based models thus represents a next step in validating the efficacy of CT, thereby extending existing model approaches [ 39 , 40 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Indirect Virus Transmission via Fomites Can Counteract Lock-Down Effectiveness

Thalheim

Krüger

Galle

2022

IJERPH

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The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has raised major health policy questions. Direct transmission via respiratory droplets seems to be the dominant route of its transmission. However, indirect transmission via shared contact of contaminated objects may also occur. The contribution of each transmission route to epidemic spread might change during lock-down scenarios. Here, we simulate viral spread of an abstract epidemic considering both routes of transmission by use of a stochastic, agent-based SEIR model. We show that efficient contact tracing (CT) at a high level of incidence can stabilize daily cases independently of the transmission route long before effects of herd immunity become relevant. CT efficacy depends on the fraction of cases that do not show symptoms. Combining CT with lock-down scenarios that reduce agent mobility lowers the incidence for exclusive direct transmission scenarios and can even eradicate the epidemic. However, even for small fractions of indirect transmission, such lockdowns can impede CT efficacy and increase case numbers. These counterproductive effects can be reduced by applying measures that favor distancing over reduced mobility. In summary, we show that the efficacy of lock-downs depends on the transmission route. Our results point to the particular importance of hygiene measures during mobility lock-downs.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Indirect Virus Transmission via Fomites Can Counteract Lock-Down Effectiveness

Thalheim

Krüger

Galle

2022

IJERPH

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“…It has been observed that after recovery from primary COVID-19 infection, the same person can be infected with another variant of COVID-19 (Atifa et al. 2022 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since late 2019 when COVID-19 emerged, many mathematical models have been constructed by researchers to facilitate understanding of the dynamical spread and control of the pandemic in different countries (Atifa et al. 2022 ; Abro et al. 2021 ; Anggriani and Beay 2022 ; Gumel et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… 2021 ). For instance, Atifa et al ( 2022 ) developed and analysed a compartmental model for COVID-19 transmission dynamics by taking into consideration the effect of reinfection of individuals after recovery using Pakistan reported cases. A mathematical model based on Lotka-Volterra equations to gain insights into the impact of lockdown on COVID-19 spread by examining the difference in the growth rate of COVID-19 patients before and after the imposition of lockdown in Pakistan and Malaysia was presented by Abro et al ( 2021 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It has been reported that presymptomatic transmission contributes majorly to the spread of COVID-19 (Alleman et al 2021). It has been observed that after recovery from primary COVID-19 infection, the same person can be infected with another variant of COVID-19 (Atifa et al 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic with Double Dose Vaccination

et al. 2023

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This paper is concerned with the formulation and analysis of an epidemic model of COVID-19 governed by an eight-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations, by taking into account the first dose and the second dose of vaccinated individuals in the population. The developed model is analyzed and the threshold quantity known as the control reproduction number is obtained. We investigate the equilibrium stability of the system, and the COVID-free equilibrium is said to be locally asymptotically stable when the control reproduction number is less than unity, and unstable otherwise. Using the least-squares method, the model is calibrated based on the cumulative number of COVID-19 reported cases and available information about the mass vaccine administration in Malaysia between the 24th of February 2021 and February 2022. Following the model fitting and estimation of the parameter values, a global sensitivity analysis was performed by using the Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) to determine the most influential parameters on the threshold quantities. The result shows that the effective transmission rate , the rate of first vaccine dose , the second dose vaccination rate and the recovery rate due to the second dose of vaccination are the most influential of all the model parameters. We further investigate the impact of these parameters by performing a numerical simulation on the developed COVID-19 model. The result of the study shows that adhering to the preventive measures has a huge impact on reducing the spread of the disease in the population. Particularly, an increase in both the first and second dose vaccination rates reduces the number of infected individuals, thus reducing the disease burden in the population.

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