Mathematical Model Analysis and Simulation of Visceral Leishmaniasis, Kashgar, Xinjiang, 2004–2016

Song, Yunlin; Zhang, Tailei; Li, Hui; Wang, Kai; Lu, Xiaobo

doi:10.1155/2020/5049825

Cited by 10 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…The ratio 𝛽𝑆 𝑁 ⁄ is the proportion of contacts by one infected individual and (𝛽𝑆 𝑁 ⁄ )𝐼 the number of contacts by the infected population. The ratio 1 𝛾 ⁄ denotes the average length of the infection period [27].…”

Section: Equations Of the Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Stochastic Model for Kala-azar Transmission Dynamics in Libo Kemkem, Ethiopia

Alemu

2022

Preprint

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The objective of this paper is to analyse and demonstrate the dynamics of Kala-azar infected group using stochastic model, particularly using simple SIR model with python script over time. The model is used under a closed population with N = 100, transmission rate coefficient β = 0.09, recovery rate γ = 0.03 and initial condition I(0) = 1. In the paper it is discussed how the Kala-azar infected group behaves through simple SIR model. The paper is completed with stochastic SIR model simulation result and shows stochasticity of the dynamics of Kala-azar infected population over time. Fig. 2 below depicts continuous fluctuations which tells us the disease evolves with stochastic nature and shows random process.Subject: Infectious Disease, Global Health, Health Informatics and Statistical and Computational Physics

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Section: Equations Of the Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Stochastic Model for Kala-azar Transmission Dynamics in Libo Kemkem, Ethiopia

Alemu

2022

Preprint

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“…Visceral leishmaniasis is considered most lethal among all the forms with over 95% fatality rate if untreated and second most killer parasitic disease after malaria [4, 7,8]. Although only 25-45% of the incidents are reported, visceral leishmaniasis is endemic in over hundred countries worldwide and more than ninety percent of the cases occur in ten countries mainly in Eastern Africa, South-East Asia region, and Brazil [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Leishmaniasis has four major disease forms which range from simple skin lesions to fatal systemic infection and include: cutaneous form, visceral form, muco - cutaneous form, and post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis form [5,6]. Visceral leishmaniasis is considered most lethal among all the forms with over 95% fatality rate if untreated and second most killer parasitic disease after malaria [4,7,8]. Although only 25 - 45% of the incidents are reported, visceral leishmaniasis is endemic in over hundred countries worldwide and more than ninety percent of the cases occur in ten countries mainly in Eastern Africa, South-East Asia region, and Brazil [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and environmental influence on visceral leishmaniasis in West Pokot county, Kenya

Abdullahi

Mutiso

Maloba

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Kala-azar is a parasitic disease caused by Leishmania species transmitted by sand fly. In Kenya, kala-azar is endemic in thirty sub-counties spread over in eleven counties in the arid zones. Climate change-influenced seasonal weather variability and environmental alterations remain important determinants of many vector-borne diseases. The present study focused on climate change and environmental influence on kala-azar in West Pokot. Descriptive cross-sectional and retrospective research design was adapted. Study area was purposively selected. Locations and villages were randomly selected, while households were systematically selected. Three hundred sixty three household questionnaires, eleven key informant interviews, and five focus group discussions were undertaken. Secondary data was obtained from Kacheliba sub-county hospital records. Statistical package for social science version 24 was used to analyze quantitative data while NVivo software was used to analyse qualitative data. Kala-azar cases have been on the rise on aggregate from 2010 to 2020, 400 to 500 annual average cases, and incident rate tends to surge during dry season and just after the rains when humidity is high and temperature variations are wide. Significant environmental characteristics associated with risk of kala-azar infection included: presences of seasonal rain water pathways and rock piles around houses (X2= 30.706, df=1, p<0.001); presence of acacia trees in and around homesteads (X2=21.404, df=1, p<0.001); presence of dumping site (X2=9.641, df=1, p=0.002); presence of anthills around the homesteads (X2=16.538, df=1, p<0.001); presence of animal shed (X2=4.290, df=1, p=0.038); presences of chicken shelter (X2=36.862, df=1, p<0.001); and practices of frequently moving houses to new temporary compound (X2=20.919, df=1, p<0.001). Climate change-induced seasonal weather variability; increased temperature and reduced precipitation and environmental alterations remain significant predictors of kala-azar in West Pokot. Community sensitization on disease prevalence, clearing of vector predilection sites and improving community environmental risk perception are imperative to promote prevention and reduce disease burden.Brief summaryClimate change and environmental alteration influence on vector-borne diseases is getting stronger as ever increasing global temperatures and human activity-induced environmental changes remain key drivers of vector expansion and disease re-emergence. In Kenya, kala-azar cases are on an increasing trend as annual incidents surpassed 1,500 with a growing list of over eleven endemic counties. The present study used household questionnaire, interrogated surrounding environment using observation checklist and delved into Kacheliba hospital records. Risk of kala-azar was significant in association with presence of seasonal water pathways, presence of acacia trees, anthills, cattle & goat and chicken shelters around houses. On aggregate, kala-azar incident rate was increasing from 2010 to 2020, and cases tend to surge towards end of first and start of last quarter annually. These surge periods coincide with dry season and just after rains in the area when the humidity is high. Apparently during the last 10 years there seems reduced precipitation and increase temperature. Interestingly, increased in temperature and reduced precipitation was associated with increased reported Kala-zar cases. Policy makers and concerned agencies should consider promoting preventive behaviors, increasing community risk perception and eliminating vector-harboring structures around houses, while observing environmental conservation as a disease mitigation strategy.

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“…The three causative pathogens of visceral leishmaniasis are L. infantum, L. donovani, and L. chagasi. The incubation/latency period varies from three to six months with a minimum of 10 days, however, a longer period of one year has also been reported [1][2][3][4]. Each year 500,000 new cases of V l strain are reported worldwide [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal control of visceral, cutaneous and post kala-azar leishmaniasis

Zamir¹,

Nadeem²,

Zaman

2020

Adv Differ Equ

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This article focuses on the eradication of different strains of leishmaniasis with the help of almost nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). A comprehensive mathematical model of the disease is formulated incorporating three types of populations: sandflies, humans and dogs (reservoirs), and 3-types of strains: $C_{l}$ C l , cutaneous leishmaniasis; $V_{l}$ V l , kala-azar; and PKDL, post kala-azar. We find $R_{0}$ R 0 , the basic reproduction number of the infection. On the basis of sensitivity test of $R_{0}$ R 0 , the most active/sensitive parameters are investigated. These active parameters are controlled with the help of control variables. In some cases different parameters depend on the same single parameter, like ovigenesis and biting rate, both of which are linked to the blood source. Therefore we introduce three nonpharmaceutical control variables in the proposed model to control the biting rate of sandflies, density of seropositive dogs, and density of vector population. Nonpharmaceutical interventions include bed nets, eradiation of infectious dogs, and residual sprays, and thus extend the proposed model to an optimal control model. Using Lagrangian and Hamiltonian, we minimize the densities infected classes in human, sandfly and vector populations. Adopting optimality approach, we check the existence of the optimal control for the system. Using Matlab, we produce numerical simulations for the validation of results of control variables.

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Mathematical Model Analysis and Simulation of Visceral Leishmaniasis, Kashgar, Xinjiang, 2004–2016

Cited by 10 publications

References 16 publications

A Stochastic Model for Kala-azar Transmission Dynamics in Libo Kemkem, Ethiopia

A Stochastic Model for Kala-azar Transmission Dynamics in Libo Kemkem, Ethiopia

Climate change and environmental influence on visceral leishmaniasis in West Pokot county, Kenya

Optimal control of visceral, cutaneous and post kala-azar leishmaniasis

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