Mathematical COVID-19 model with vaccination: a case study in Saudi Arabia

Algarni, Abeer D.; Hamed, Aws Ben; Hamdi, Monia; Elmannai, Hela; Meshoul, Souham

doi:10.7717/peerj-cs.959

Cited by 14 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…By the fifth phase of COVID-19, approximately 81% of the Thai population received at least one vaccination, 73% received two vaccinations, and 36% received a third vaccination [ 29 ]. However, coverage has been inconsistent throughout Thailand, with much lower vaccination rates among people living in remote areas [ 23 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Booster Dose Vaccination and Dynamics of COVID-19 Pandemic in the Fifth Wave: An Efficient and Simple Mathematical Model for Disease Progression

2023

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Background: Mathematical studies exploring the impact of booster vaccine doses on the recent COVID-19 waves are scarce, leading to ambiguity regarding the significance of booster doses. Methods: A mathematical model with seven compartments was used to determine the basic and effective reproduction numbers and the proportion of infected people during the fifth wave of COVID-19. Using the next-generation matrix, we computed the effective reproduction parameter, Rt. Results: During the fifth COVID-19 wave, the basic reproductive number in Thailand was calculated to be R0= 1.018691. Analytical analysis of the model revealed both local and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the presence of an endemic equilibrium. A dose-dependent decrease in the percentage of infected individuals was observed in the vaccinated population. The simulation results matched the real-world data of the infected patients, establishing the suitability of the model. Furthermore, our analysis suggested that people who had received vaccinations had a better recovery rate and that the death rate was the lowest among those who received the booster dose. The booster dose reduced the effective reproduction number over time, suggesting a vaccine efficacy rate of 0.92. Conclusion: Our study employed a rigorous analytical approach to accurately describe the dynamics of the COVID-19 fifth wave in Thailand. Our findings demonstrated that administering a booster dose can significantly increase the vaccine efficacy rate, resulting in a lower effective reproduction number and a reduction in the number of infected individuals. These results have important implications for public health policymaking, as they provide useful information for the more effective forecasting of the pandemic and improving the efficiency of public health interventions. Moreover, our study contributes to the ongoing discourse on the effectiveness of booster doses in mitigating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Essentially, our study suggests that administering a booster dose can substantially reduce the spread of the virus, supporting the case for widespread booster dose campaigns.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Booster Dose Vaccination and Dynamics of COVID-19 Pandemic in the Fifth Wave: An Efficient and Simple Mathematical Model for Disease Progression

2023

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“…Therefore, the speed of vaccination became more important with a higher reproductive number, potentially resulting in many more deaths. Further, in 2022, studies by Arshad et al [ 33 ] in Tunisia and Algarni et al [ 34 ] in Saudi Arabia demonstrated the benefits of a comprehensive vaccination campaign in reducing deaths and infections associated with COVID-19 [ 33 ] and identified the vaccination rate as a crucial factor in controlling virus spread [ 34 ]. Many studies have yet to establish criteria for assessing the effectiveness of different types of vaccines.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 with the Control of Mixed Vaccine Types during the Pandemic in Thailand

et al. 2023

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COVID-19 is a respiratory disease that can spread rapidly. Controlling the spread through vaccination is one of the measures for activating immunization that helps to reduce the number of infected people. Different types of vaccines are effective in preventing and alleviating the symptoms of the disease in different ways. In this study, a mathematical model, SVIHR, was developed to assess the behavior of disease transmission in Thailand by considering the vaccine efficacy of different vaccine types and the vaccination rate. The equilibrium points were investigated and the basic reproduction number R0 was calculated using a next-generation matrix to determine the stability of the equilibrium. We found that the disease-free equilibrium point was asymptotically stable if, and only if, R0<1, and the endemic equilibrium was asymptotically stable if, and only if, R0>1. The simulation results and the estimation of the parameters applied to the actual data in Thailand are reported. The sensitivity of parameters related to the basic reproduction number was compared with estimates of the effectiveness of pandemic controls. The simulations of different vaccine efficacies for different vaccine types were compared and the average mixing of vaccine types was reported to assess the vaccination policies. Finally, the trade-off between the vaccine efficacy and the vaccination rate was investigated, resulting in the essentiality of vaccine efficacy to restrict the spread of COVID-19.

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“…Some other features of COVID-19 that are not considered are the immunity development by vaccinated individuals and the immunity loss by the recovered people. It has been observed that this phenomenon occurs in many epidemic models as well (see, for instance 26 , 27 , 32 ,).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 89%

Modeling the dynamics of COVID-19 with real data from Thailand

Ibrahim

Humphries

Ngiamsunthorn

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

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In recent years, COVID-19 has evolved into many variants, posing new challenges for disease control and prevention. The Omicron variant, in particular, has been found to be highly contagious. In this study, we constructed and analyzed a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission that incorporates vaccination and three different compartments of the infected population: asymptomatic $$(I_{a})$$ ( I a ) , symptomatic $$(I_{s})$$ ( I s ) , and Omicron $$(I_{m})$$ ( I m ) . The model is formulated in the Caputo sense, which allows for fractional derivatives that capture the memory effects of the disease dynamics. We proved the existence and uniqueness of the solution of the model, obtained the effective reproduction number, showed that the model exhibits both endemic and disease-free equilibrium points, and showed that backward bifurcation can occur. Furthermore, we documented the effects of asymptomatic infected individuals on the disease transmission. We validated the model using real data from Thailand and found that vaccination alone is insufficient to completely eradicate the disease. We also found that Thailand must monitor asymptomatic individuals through stringent testing to halt and subsequently eradicate the disease. Our study provides novel insights into the behavior and impact of the Omicron variant and suggests possible strategies to mitigate its spread.

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Mathematical COVID-19 model with vaccination: a case study in Saudi Arabia

Cited by 14 publications

References 37 publications

Booster Dose Vaccination and Dynamics of COVID-19 Pandemic in the Fifth Wave: An Efficient and Simple Mathematical Model for Disease Progression

Booster Dose Vaccination and Dynamics of COVID-19 Pandemic in the Fifth Wave: An Efficient and Simple Mathematical Model for Disease Progression

Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 with the Control of Mixed Vaccine Types during the Pandemic in Thailand

Modeling the dynamics of COVID-19 with real data from Thailand

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