Mathematical assessment of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on curtailing the 2019 novel Coronavirus

Ngonghala, Calistus N.; Iboi, Enahoro; Eikenberry, Steffen E.; Scotch, Matthew; MacIntyre, C. Raina; Bonds, Matthew H.; Gumel, Abba B.

doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108364

Cited by 509 publications

(629 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…According to the World Health Organization, “when systematically applied, contact tracing will break the chains of transmission of an infectious disease and is thus an essential public health tool” [ 1 ]. There is evidence that contact tracing was effective in previous pandemics, and several model studies point to benefits in the COVID-19 crisis as well [ 2 , 3 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 Contact Tracing Apps: Predicted Uptake in the Netherlands Based on a Discrete Choice Experiment

Jonker¹,

Bekker‐Grob²,

Veldwijk³

et al. 2020

JMIR Mhealth Uhealth

107

129

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Background Smartphone-based contact tracing apps can contribute to reducing COVID-19 transmission rates and thereby support countries emerging from lockdowns as restrictions are gradually eased. Objective The primary objective of our study is to determine the potential uptake of a contact tracing app in the Dutch population, depending on the characteristics of the app. Methods A discrete choice experiment was conducted in a nationally representative sample of 900 Dutch respondents. Simulated maximum likelihood methods were used to estimate population average and individual-level preferences using a mixed logit model specification. Individual-level uptake probabilities were calculated based on the individual-level preference estimates and subsequently aggregated into the sample as well as subgroup-specific contact tracing app adoption rates. Results The predicted app adoption rates ranged from 59.3% to 65.7% for the worst and best possible contact tracing app, respectively. The most realistic contact tracing app had a predicted adoption of 64.1%. The predicted adoption rates strongly varied by age group. For example, the adoption rates of the most realistic app ranged from 45.6% to 79.4% for people in the oldest and youngest age groups (ie, ≥75 years vs 15-34 years), respectively. Educational attainment, the presence of serious underlying health conditions, and the respondents’ stance on COVID-19 infection risks were also correlated with the predicted adoption rates but to a lesser extent. Conclusions A secure and privacy-respecting contact tracing app with the most realistic characteristics can obtain an adoption rate as high as 64% in the Netherlands. This exceeds the target uptake of 60% that has been formulated by the Dutch government. The main challenge will be to increase the uptake among older adults, who are least inclined to install and use a COVID-19 contact tracing app.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 Contact Tracing Apps: Predicted Uptake in the Netherlands Based on a Discrete Choice Experiment

Jonker¹,

Bekker‐Grob²,

Veldwijk³

et al. 2020

JMIR Mhealth Uhealth

107

129

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…However, little is known on population-level adherence to the various containment measures implemented worldwide, with most studies focusing on adherence to hygiene measures among healthcare workers [8,9,10]. In-depth documentation of adherence to containment measures is nonetheless essential, on the one hand to feed into initiatives attempting to model outbreaks [6,11], and on the other hand to adapt and target health promotion messages to subpopulations that may be struggling to adhere to speci c measures [12], such as speci c age groups.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 outbreak in Brazil: Adherence to national preventive measures and impact on people’s lives

Villela

López

Sato

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: The first case of COVID-19 infection was diagnosed in Brazil 26th February 2020. By March 16th, physical distancing and confinement measures were implemented by the Brazilian government. Little is known about how these measures were followed up by the Brazilian people and their impact on daily routine.Methods: In early April 2020, using an online platform, we organized an online survey among adults living in Brazil about their COVID-19 preventive behavior. Results: Data from 23.896 respondents were analyzed (mean age: 47.4 years). Due to COVID-19 restrictions, half (51.1%) of the professionals reported working from home. Regular handwashing was practiced by 98.7% of participants; 92.6% reported adhering to the 1.5-2m physical distancing rule, but only 45.5% wore a face mask when going outside. While 29.3% of respondents found it relatively easy to stay at home, indoor confinement was extremely difficult for 7.9% of participants. Moreover, 11% of participants were extremely worried about their health during the COVID-19 epidemic.Younger people, male, persons living in a rural area/village or popular neighbourhoods, students and workers reported less preventive behaviour. Conclusion: Restrictive measures markedly affected the daily and professional routines of Brazilians. Participants showed a satisfactory level of adherence to national COVID-19 prevention guidelines. Qualitative and follow-up studies are needed to monitor the impact of COVID-19 in the Brazilian society.

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“…Due to the current pandemic, there is a shortage of both surgical masks and N95 masks available to the public. However, even home-made cloth masks can stop aerosol (<5 µm) or droplets (>5 µm) containing viruses (Clase et al, 2020;Ngonghala et al, 2020). The widespread use of 222B coated masks, could put an end of the COVID 19 pandemic much sooner.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterization of Rhamnolipids for the Inactivation of Enveloped Viruses

Jin

Black

Sawyer

2020

Preprint

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Abstract In the face of new emerging respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV2, vaccines, and drug therapies are not immediately available to curb the spread of the infection. Non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as mask-wearing and social distance, can slow the transmission. However, both mask and social distance are not 100% effective at preventing the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV2 and influenza viruses. There is an urgent need to develop an intervention that could reduce the spread of respiratory viruses. Rhamnolipids are environmentally friendly and biologically safe surfactants that can kill enveloped viruses. Two rhamnolipid products, 222A and 222B, were investigated in this study to determine their ability to inactivate two enveloped viruses, bovine coronavirus and herpes simplex virus 1. We found that 222B at 0.005%, which has no toxicity to cells, can inactivate 105 PFU/ml enveloped viruses in 3-5 min. Moreover, 50-100µl of 222B at 0.005% on 1 cm2 mask fabrics can inactivate ~ 103 PFU /10 µl in 3-5 min. These results suggest that 222B can be coated on masks to prevent or reduce the spread of enveloped viruses.

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Mathematical assessment of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on curtailing the 2019 novel Coronavirus

Cited by 509 publications

References 49 publications

COVID-19 Contact Tracing Apps: Predicted Uptake in the Netherlands Based on a Discrete Choice Experiment

COVID-19 Contact Tracing Apps: Predicted Uptake in the Netherlands Based on a Discrete Choice Experiment

COVID-19 outbreak in Brazil: Adherence to national preventive measures and impact on people’s lives

Characterization of Rhamnolipids for the Inactivation of Enveloped Viruses

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