Mathematical analysis of the transmission dynamics of the liver fluke, Opisthorchis viverrini

Bürli, Christine; Harbrecht, Helmut; Odermatt, Peter; Sayasone, Somphou; Chitnis, Nakul

doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2017.11.020

Cited by 41 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Chi-square test was used to see whether there is significant difference between observed and estimated prevalence [37,38]. Local sensitivity index [25] and partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCC) [39] were calculated to assess the influence of different parameters on R 0 , locally and globally, respectively.…”

Section: Parameter Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Combinations of measures were much beneficial than those singly applied; and particularly, chemotherapy combined with both IEC and environmental modification showed much better effects than that combined with only one measure. Chemotherapy could reduce the number of infected people but could not prevent reinfections or new infections [9], while IEC helps to reduce the transmission rate from infected fish to susceptible human [25], and environmental modification decreases the chance of the transmission from infected human to snails [25]. Thus, all of the three measures implemented together will effectively control the transmission, which is strongly recommended for morbidity control of the disease.…”

Section: Measures When Applied Singly or Combinedlymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…And control strategies focus on population with raw fish consumption instead of whole population cannot be assessed under these models. Interestingly, Bürli and colleges [24,25] developed deterministic models of Opisthorchis viverrini transmission dynamics to evaluate the long-term effectiveness of different interventions (e.g., MDA, IEC, and environmental modification), by including the parameters of interventions inside the models and simulating different scenarios. O. viverrini, known as the other major species of liver fluke, have very similar life cycle as C. sinensis [26].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of control strategies against Clonorchis sinensis infection based on a multi-group dynamic transmission model

et al. 2020

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Clonorchiasis is one of the most important food-borne trematodiases affecting millions of people. Strategies were recommended by different organizations and control programmes were implemented but mostly in short-time periods. It's important to assess the long-term benefits and sustainability of possible control strategies on morbidity control of the disease. We developed a multi-group transmission model to describe the dynamics of C. sinensis transmission among different groups of people with different raw-fish-consumption behaviors, based on which, a full model with interventions was proposed and three common control measures (i.e., preventive chemotherapy, information, education, and communication (IEC) and environmental modification) and their possible combinations were considered. Under a typical setting of C. sinensis transmission, we simulated interventions according to different strategies and with a series of values of intervention parameters. We found that combinations of measures were much beneficial than those singly applied; higher coverages of measures had better effects; and strategies targeted on whole population performed better than that on at-risk population with raw-fish-consumption behaviors. The strategy recommended by the government of Guangdong Province, China shows good and sustainable effects, under which, the infection control (with human prevalence <5%) could be achieved within 7.84 years (95% CI: 5.78-12.16 years) in our study setting (with original observed prevalence 33.67%). Several sustainable strategies were provided, which could lead to infection control within 10 years. This study makes the effort to quantitatively assess the long-term effects of possible control strategies against C. sinensis infection under a typical transmission setting, with application of a multi-group dynamic transmission model. The proposed model is easily facilitated with other transmission settings and the simulation outputs provide useful information to support the decision-making of control strategies on clonorchiasis.

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Section: Parameter Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Measures When Applied Singly or Combinedlymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of control strategies against Clonorchis sinensis infection based on a multi-group dynamic transmission model

et al. 2020

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“…In order to identify further the most sensitive parameter(s), we conduct global sensitivity analysis on basic reproduction number

{scriptR}_{0}

and cumulative new infective cases in rodent and red fox populations, respectively, as outputs. We use the method of PRCC, as explained and applied in previous studies with parameter values and ranges shown in Table . The PRCC function is developed and implemented using MATLAB R2017b run over 1000 sample sizes, for eight parameters.…”

Section: Sensitivity Analysis and Numerical Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global dynamics for mathematical model of Echinococcus multilocularis in rodents and red foxes

Hassan

Munganga

2020

Math Methods in App Sciences

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A deterministic model for transmission of Echinococcus multilocularis (EM), a parasitic disease responsible for human alveolar echinococcosis, is formulated and analyzed rigorously. The model consists of two hosts, with three compartments each, and concentration of the parasites from environment as sources of infection. The model takes into account a predator-prey relationship between the major hosts and obtained a threshold value for their existence. Systematic derivation of basic reproduction number,  0 , is provided. Thorough qualitative analysis of the model reveals that it has a local and global asymptotic stable disease-free equilibrium when  0 < 1; thus, (EM) will die out in the populations. However, when  0 exceeds unity, the model exhibits a unique endemic equilibrium, which is globally asymptotic stable; hence, disease will persist. The elasticity indices and partial rank correlation coefficients of the basic reproduction number and cumulative new cases of the two hosts with respect to parameter values are computed. Sensitivity analyses identified key parameters that are the most sensitive and can be used for control strategies in reducing  0 below unity. Numerical simulations are used to verify theoretical results and quantify prevalence of the disease in host populations. KEYWORDSEchinococcus multilocularis, elasticity indices, global sensitivity analysis, parasites, stability MSC CLASSIFICATION 37N25; 37N30; 92B05Math Meth Appl

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“…Примеры таких исследований даны в [4,5] и цитируемых в этих работах статьях. Возможные области использования аппарата математического моделирования включают как анализ развития заболевания у зараженной особи [6], так и изучение механизмов заражения [7], пространственного [8] и популяционного распространения болезни [9,10]. Наибольшее количество работ посвящено описанию малярии [11,12] и лихорадки Западного Нила [13,14], что объясняется широким распространением и опасностью этих болезней.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

A mathematical model of spatial transmission of vector-borne disease

Говорухин¹,

Zagrebneva²,

Kartashev³

2018

Math.Biol.Bioinf.

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A mathematical model of the propagation of vector-borne diseases in a two-species population of a carrier and reservoir of the disease is proposed and studied. The model is based on the mechanism of dirofilariosis propagation. The model is formulated as a system of four partial differential equations. As variables of the model, densities of two population divided by the number of healthy and infected ones were chosen. The simplest case of a spatially homogeneous distribution of populations was studied, stationary regimes were found, and their stability conditions were obtained. It is shown that a sufficiently intensive application of all possible preventive arrangements (extermination of the vectors of the disease, treatment of infected individuals, prevention of contact with the vector of the disease) leads to the stability of a stationary regime with no disease. A scheme for numerical analysis of a full mathematical model that takes into account the spatial inhomogeneity of population distribution is proposed. In the computational experiment, various strategies for the application of insecticides in space have been studied. As a result, the following recommendations on the use of insecticides for the prevention of vector-borne diseases are formulated: the most effective is the localized use of insecticides; treatment should be carried out near the source of reproduction of the vectors of the disease, creating a barrier between the source and reservoir of the pathogen; for each amount of insecticide there is an optimal size of the processing area.

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Mathematical analysis of the transmission dynamics of the liver fluke, Opisthorchis viverrini

Cited by 41 publications

References 29 publications

Assessment of control strategies against Clonorchis sinensis infection based on a multi-group dynamic transmission model

Assessment of control strategies against Clonorchis sinensis infection based on a multi-group dynamic transmission model

Global dynamics for mathematical model of Echinococcus multilocularis in rodents and red foxes

A mathematical model of spatial transmission of vector-borne disease

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