Mathematical analysis of the effects of controls on transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2

Abstract

COVID-19, an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), starting from Wuhan city of China, plagued the world in the later part of 2019. We developed a deterministic model to study the transmission dynamics of the disease with two categories of the Susceptibles (ie Immigrant Susceptibles and Local Susceptible). The model is shown to have a globally stable disease-free equilibrium point whenever the basic reproduction number is less than unity. The endemic equilibrium is also shown to be globally stable for under some conditions. The spread of the disease is also shown to be highly sensitive to use of PPEs and personal hygiene , transmission probability , average number of contacts of infected person per unit time (day) , the rate at which the exposed develop clinical symptoms and the rate of recovery . Numerical simulation of the model is also done to illustrate the analytical results established.

Caputo fractional-order SEIRP model for COVID-19 Pandemic

“…Mathematical modeling of epidemics in literature reveals that nonlinear dynamical equations can give some important insight into the transmission dynamics or dynamical behaviors of disease spread. The recent COVID-19 outbreaks around the world have attracted a lot of interest in the mathematical modeling of this highly contagious disease by constructing realistic nonlinear compartmental mathematical models that are driven by data to better understand the transmission dynamics of the epidemics [9] , [10] , [11] , [12] , [13] , [14] , [15] , [16] , [17] , [18] , [19] , [20] , [21] . A new eight-compartmental deterministic model for the COVID-19 epidemic that captures awareness campaign programs and hospitalization control strategies for both severe and mild cases of infections in Nigeria is proposed in a recent study by Musa et al [22] .…”

Mathematical modeling and optimal control of the COVID-19 dynamics

“…The modeling of coronavirus with vaccination, the efficacy of vaccine and its response has been discussed in [10] . The mathematical modeling of the SARS-COV-2 through an optimal control analysis is studied in [11] . The application of an optimal control modeling to the coronavirus infection using South African cases has been studied in [12] .…”

Modeling the impact of early interventions on the transmission dynamics of coronavirus infection

“…This paper looks at the effect of early interventions on the transmission dynamics of coronavirus infection by employing mathematical modelling. Several mathematical models have been used as an engine to unravel knowledge in many epidemiological studies [ Asamoah et al, 2017 , 2020a , 2020b ; Bornaa et al, 2017 , 2020 ; Seidu et al, 2020 ; Agusto et al, 2015 ; Ivorra Benjamin and Ramos, 2015 ]. Most of these studies have yielded exceptional results that transformed the lives of families, communities, nations and the entire globe.…”