Material flows and GHG emissions from housing stock evolution in US counties, 2020–60

Abstract

The evolution of housing stocks determines demand for construction materials and energy, and associated emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHGs). The contribution of construction to building life-cycle emissions is growing as buildings become more energy efficient and the energy supply decarbonizes. A housing stock model is developed for counties in the United States using dynamic vacancy rates which endogenously influence stock out-and inflows. Stocks of three house types and 10 construction cohorts are projected for all contiguous US counties for the period 2020-60. Inflows and outflows of construction materials are then estimated along with GHG emissions associated with material production and construction activities in scenarios defined by stock turnover rates, population share by house type, and floor area characteristics of new houses. The results provide new insights into the drivers of construction-related emissions at local and national levels, and identify opportunities for their reduction. Demolition material flows grow in relation to construction material flows over the analysis period. Increasing the stock turnover rate increases future floor area per person, material requirements, and emissions from construction. Scenarios with reduced floor area and more multifamily homes in new construction have lower floor area growth, material requirements, and emissions from construction.

Decarbonization pathways for the residential sector in the United States

“…For residential buildings, su ciency can be translated into a global convergence of oor area per person 16,17 to somewhere in the range of 15-40 m 2 /cap [18][19][20][21] . Current average oor area usage in the US is 67 m 2 /cap in single-family homes, 41 m 2 /cap in multifamily homes, and 60 m 2 /cap across all house types 22 . This is one of the highest levels globally; oor area consumption in the UK and Japan is closer to 40 m 2 /cap, while in many other countries it is lower, but growing 23 .…”

“…Description Of Scenarios 108 emissions scenarios (3 x 4 x 3 x 3) are developed, de ned by three scenarios describing evolution of the US housing stock 22 , four scenarios describing characteristics of new housing, three renovation scenarios, and three electricity supply scenarios 24,25 (Table 1). The scenarios re ect different approaches to climate change mitigation; su ciency approaches are represented in the High multifamily growth and Reduced oor area scenarios, retro t-e ciency approaches are represented in the Renovation scenarios, rebuild-e ciency approaches are represented in the High stock turnover and Increased Electri cation scenarios, while energy supply decarbonization is represented in the Electricity supply scenarios.…”

Efficient use of cement and concrete to reduce reliance on supply-side technologies for net-zero emissions

“…The key here is to recognize that the amount of cement and concrete that can be produced and used in a net-zero future is not infinite, and that it is considerably less than current levels. This means that stock growth and turnover must be managed simultaneously so as not to induce excessive use of low or zero carbon materials 44 .…”

Correction: Material flows and GHG emissions from housing stock evolution in US counties, 2020–60

“…Corrected Figure 2 Inflows (additions) and outflows (losses) from stock for three house types for six housing stock scenarios described in Berrill & Hertwich (2021)…”

“…In our research article "Material flows and GHG emissions from housing stock evolution in US counties, 2020-60" (Berrill & Hertwich, 2021), we included an incorrect panel as part of Figure 2, which we wish to correct. The figure, which shows annual additions and losses from the US housing stock in different scenarios, repeated the results for Scenario 1 in the bottom left panel, rather than showing the appropriate panel describing results for Scenario 3 and Scenario 6.…”