Material Deprivation and the Brexit Referendum: A Spatial Multilevel Analysis of the Interplay between Individual and Regional Deprivation

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between individual and regional deprivation and the decision to vote for Brexit in the 2016 referendum. Our analysis uses data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study and the English Index of Multiple Deprivation, and employs multilevel models to account for individual-level deprivation, neighbourhood deprivation, and larger-scale area deprivation. We further investigate the interplay between those scales. On average we find that individual, neighbourhood, and larger area deprivation are associated with a higher likelihood of voting for “Leave”. However, the impact of neighbourhood deprivation is heterogenous and depends on the broader spatial context: living in deprived neighbourhoods (and to a lesser extent also experiencing personal deprivation) has a greater impact on voting behaviour in more affluent regions. Conversely, the effect of individual and neighbourhood deprivation is close to zero and not statistically significant in more deprived areas of the country. These results indicate that social comparison processes of in- and out-groups operate within larger regional contexts. Our study thus emphasises the role of individual and regional deprivation but also their intersection in shaping political attitudes and outcomes.