Mass production cost of PEM fuel cell by learning curve

Tsuchiya, Haruki

doi:10.1016/j.ijhydene.2003.10.011

Cited by 452 publications

(221 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…Neij [8] notes that many earlier studies utilize experience curves for cost analysis of fuel cells, but most assume a learning rate rather than presenting a historical time series of price data (e.g., [9] and [10]). Thus an updated look at experience curves would be helpful for the latest assessment of fuel cell cost trends using the most recent data for commercialized fuel cell systems.…”

Section: Fuel Cell Experience Curvesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…10 At lower production volumes, costs may still be high if their 10 An exception to this statement is that the fuel cell stack assembly module yield is assumed to be much higher than 80% since any loss at this step would necessitate scrapping all the value-added steps from other process modules. Overall Process yield is held fixed at the two annual production volumes of 1000 and 10,000 units per year.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Analysis of Fuel Cell Markets in Japan and the US: Experience Curve Development and Cost Reduction Disaggregation

Wei¹,

Smith²,

Sohn³

2016

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Fuel cells are both a longstanding and emerging technology for stationary and transportation applications, and their future use will likely be critical for the deep decarbonization of global energy systems. As we look into future applications, a key challenge for policy-makers and technology market forecasters who seek to track and/or accelerate their market adoption is the ability to forecast market costs of the fuel cells as technology innovations are incorporated into market products. Specifically, there is a need to estimate technology learning rates, which are rates of cost reduction versus production volume.Unfortunately, no literature exists for forecasting future learning rates for fuel cells. In this paper, we look retrospectively to estimate learning rates for two fuel cell deployment programs: (1) the micro-combined heat and power (CHP) program in Japan, and (2) the Self-Generation Incentive Program (SGIP) in California. These two examples have a relatively broad set of historical market data and thus provide an informative and international comparison of distinct fuel cell technologies and government deployment programs. We develop a generalized procedure for disaggregating experience-curve cost-reductions in order to disaggregate the Japanese fuel cell micro-CHP market into its constituent components, and we derive and present a range of learning rates that may explain observed market trends. Finally, we explore the differences in the technology development ecosystem and market conditions that may have contributed to the observed differences in cost reduction and draw policy observations for the market adoption of future fuel cell technologies. The scientific and policy contributions of this paper are the first comparative experience curve analysis of past fuel cell technologies in two distinct markets, and the first quantitative comparison of a detailed cost model of fuel cell systems with actual market data. The resulting approach is applicable to analyzing other fuel cell markets and other energy-related 2 technologies, and highlights the data needed for cost modeling and quantitative assessment of key cost reduction components.

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Section: Fuel Cell Experience Curvesmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Fuel Cell Markets in Japan and the US: Experience Curve Development and Cost Reduction Disaggregation

Wei¹,

Smith²,

Sohn³

2016

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“…Cabe resaltar que, el costo total de un auto con este sistema de celdas, varía de 500-600 dólares por kW, el cual es 10 veces más costoso en comparación con los automóviles que utilizan motor de combustión interna (Internal Combustion Engine, ICE) 90 . El costo total también incluye los costos de montaje, placa bipolar, electrodo de platino, la membrana y elementos periféricos.…”

Section: Estudio Comparativo De Las Diferentes Tecnologías De Celdas unclassified

Estudio comparativo de las diferentes tecnologías de celdas de combustible

Alvarado-Flores¹

2013

Bol. Soc. Esp. Ceram. Vidr.

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INTRODUCCIÓNLas celdas de combustible son básicamente sistemas termodinámicos abiertos. Operan en base a reacciones electroquímicas presentes y a los reactivos consumidos de una fuente externa 1,2,3,4 . Son alternativas favorables a los métodos convencionales de generación de energía eléctrica, con aplicación a escala menor. El hidrógeno y los combustibles hidrocarburos, contienen una cantidad importante de energía química en comparación con los convencionales materiales de baterías; por lo tanto, actualmente se han desarrollado para numerosas aplicaciones energéticas.El hidrógeno y la tecnología de las celdas de combustible, son prometedores sustitutos de los combustibles fósiles para proveer de energía a las zonas rurales donde no hay acceso a la red pública o cuando el costo de cableado es enorme, así como la transferencia de electricidad. Además, las celdas de combustible se pueden emplear como fuente segura de energía eléctrica en sistemas de alimentación ininterrumpida (uninterruptible power supplies, UPS), estaciones de generación de energía y sistemas de distribución. La tabla 1, muestra una comparación general entre los sistemas de celdas de combustible y otros sistemas de generación de energía 5,6,7 .De acuerdo a la tabla 1, se puede observar que el rendimiento más alto, se obtiene en los sistemas de celdas de combustible, en comparación con los sistemas convencionales de distribución de energía. Tienen un diseño simple y también funcionamiento confiable. Además, con el uso del hidrogeno como reactivo, estos sistemas resultan amigables con el medio ambiente produciendo energía limpia y de forma silenciosa 8,9,10,11,12,13 . Actualmente, los sistemas de celdas de combustible se utilizan ampliamente en aplicaciones a pequeña y gran escala, por Las celdas de combustible generan electricidad y calor durante la reacción electroquímica que ocurre entre el oxígeno e hidrógeno para formar agua. La tecnología de la celda de combustible es un camino prometedor para proporcionar energía en áreas rurales, donde no hay acceso a la red eléctrica pública, o donde hay un costo enorme en el cableado y transferencia de electricidad. Además, las celdas de combustible, pueden emplearse como fuente de energía, para asegurar la energía eléctrica como por ejemplo, en fuentes de potencia ininterrumpida (uninterruptible power supplies, UPS), estaciones de generación de energía y sistemas de distribución. En este artículo, se hace un estudio comparativo sobre diseño básico, principios de funcionamiento, aplicaciones, ventajas y desventajas de las diversas tecnologías disponibles para celdas de combustible. Además, se comparan las características tecno-económicas de los vehículos que funcionan con celdas de combustible a partir de hidrógeno (Fuel Cell Vehicle, FVC) y vehículos con motor de combustión interna (Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle, ICEV). Los resultados indican que los sistemas de celdas de combustibles tienen un diseño simple, confiabilidad alta, funcionamiento silencioso, alta eficiencia y menor impacto ambiental. ...

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“…If we consider vehicle retail prices projected for 2010 as quoted in [34], assuming fuel cell costs of 100 h/kW, mitigation costs would be more than 700 h/t CO 2 . Note that a significant improvement still has to be made to achieve a level of 100 h/kW given current fuel cell cost (produced in low quantities) [4,50,86]. 10 Although PEMFC costs for stationary purposes are higher than mobile PEMFC costs, as the former requires a longer lifetime and the capacity is lower, it is unclear what cost difference can be expected.…”

Section: Sensitivity Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

A comparison of electricity and hydrogen production systems with CO2 capture and storage—Part B: Chain analysis of promising CCS options

Damen

Troost

Faaij

et al. 2007

Progress in Energy and Combustion Science

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Promising electricity and hydrogen production chains with CO 2 capture, transport and storage (CCS) and energy carrier transmission, distribution and end-use are analysed to assess (avoided) CO 2 emissions, energy production costs and CO 2 mitigation costs. For electricity chains, the performance is dominated by the impact of CO 2 capture, increasing electricity production costs with 10-40% up to 4.5-6.5 hct/kWh. CO 2 transport and storage in depleted gas fields or aquifers typically add another 0.1-1 hct/kWh for transport distances between 0 and 200 km. The impact of CCS on hydrogen costs is small. Production and supply costs range from circa 8 h/GJ for the minimal infrastructure variant in which hydrogen is delivered to CHP units, up to 20 h/GJ for supply to households. Hydrogen costs for the transport sector are between 14 and 16 h/GJ for advanced large-scale coal gasification units and reformers, and over 20 h/GJ for decentralised membrane reformers. Although the CO 2 price required to induce CCS in hydrogen production is low in comparison to most electricity production options, electricity production with CCS generally deserves preference as CO 2 mitigation option. Replacing natural gas or gasoline for hydrogen produced with CCS results in mitigation costs over 100 h/t CO 2 , whereas CO 2 in the power sector could be reduced for costs below 60 h/t CO 2 avoided. r

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Mass production cost of PEM fuel cell by learning curve

Cited by 452 publications

References 2 publications

Analysis of Fuel Cell Markets in Japan and the US: Experience Curve Development and Cost Reduction Disaggregation

Analysis of Fuel Cell Markets in Japan and the US: Experience Curve Development and Cost Reduction Disaggregation

Estudio comparativo de las diferentes tecnologías de celdas de combustible

A comparison of electricity and hydrogen production systems with CO2 capture and storage—Part B: Chain analysis of promising CCS options

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