Mass Outcome or Mass Intent?: A Proposal for an Intent-Focused, No-Minimum Casualty Count Definition of Public Mass Shootings

Abstract

In this commentary, we propose a unifying public mass shooting definition that captures the generally conceptualized phenomenon but also expands the inclusion to all incidents regardless of casualty count. We suggest that public mass shootings be broken down into four outcome categories – completed, attempted, failed, and foiled – which have unique incident outcomes but share a common thread of mass intent. We argue for the importance of a no-minimum casualty count definition (thus including zero casualties) that emphasizes mass intent rather than the completion of the shooting. We highlight the value of and rationale for this definition by discussing the limitations of current victim criteria, and we conclude with a proposed strategy that emphasizes objective indicators of mass intent.

Assessing leakage-based mass shooting prevention: A comparison of foiled and completed attacks.

“…First, they use a similar (and common) mass shooting definition—referring to a gun violence incident perpetrated by (or intended to be perpetrated by) one or two offenders, targeting one or more public or populated locations, within 24 hr. In other words, they focus on public mass shootings involving at least some of the victims (or intended victims) chosen at random or for their symbolic value (see also Greene-Colozzi & Silva, 2022). To this end, these public incidents exclude family and felony mass shootings, and these two data sets instead focus on a specific form of the phenomenon (see also Krouse & Richardson, 2015).…”

“…While early mass shooting research often focused on understanding the phenomenon, recent research has aimed to identify strategies for countering the problem (Nagin et al, 2020). Mass shooting studies have largely focused on completed mass shootings involving four or more fatalities (Greene-Colozzi & Silva, 2022). However, examinations of completed mass shootings can only illustrate failures in threat assessment, intervention, and prevention.…”

“…Greene-Colozzi and Silva (2022) proposed three additional mass shooting categories based on the casualty-count and target-reached outcomes: attempted, failed, and foiled. An attempted mass shooting refers to an incident involving fewer than four deaths (but at least one victim casualty), while a failed mass shooting refers to an incident that was set in motion but was stopped before any victim casualties could occur (Greene-Colozzi & Silva, 2022).…”

“…Greene-Colozzi and Silva (2022) proposed three additional mass shooting categories based on the casualty-count and target-reached outcomes: attempted, failed, and foiled. An attempted mass shooting refers to an incident involving fewer than four deaths (but at least one victim casualty), while a failed mass shooting refers to an incident that was set in motion but was stopped before any victim casualties could occur (Greene-Colozzi & Silva, 2022). Examinations of attempted and failed mass shootings can provide insight for understanding police and bystander intervention strategies, as well as situational crime prevention measures, that can reduce casualties (or avoid them entirely) after the incident has already been set into motion (Freilich et al, 2020; Silva, 2021b; Silva & Greene-Colozzi, 2022a).…”

“…While much can be learned from these failures to prevent completed attacks, it is also important to consider when leakage has successfully contributed to the foiling of mass shooting plots. Mass shooting research has only recently started to incorporate failed and foiled incidents into empirical studies, opening important avenues for insight into prevention and intervention (Greene-Colozzi & Silva, 2022; Silva, 2022). Yet few, if any, studies have directly assessed the context of leakage in foiled incidents.…”