Marula (<i>Sclerocarya birrea</i> subsp. <i>caffra</i>, Anacardiaceae) thrives under climate change in sub‐Saharan Africa

Jinga, Percy; Zingoni, Emmanuel; Bobo, Enetia D.; Munosiyei, P.

doi:10.1111/aje.12943

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 93 publications

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“…Our findings on the location of ecological niche of subsp. caffra are consistent with Hall et al (2002), Woiso (2011), and Jinga et al (2022, for subspecies birrea and multifoliata.…”

Section: Ecological Niches Of Sclerocarya Birrea Subspecies Under The...supporting

confidence: 90%

Modelling ecological niches of Sclerocarya birrea subspecies in Tanzania under the current and future climates

Munna,

Amuri,

Hieronimo

et al. 2023

Silva Fenn

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The information on ecological niches of the Marula tree, Sclerocarya birrea (A. Rich.) Horchst. subspecies are needed for sustainable management of this tree, considering its nutritional, economic, and ecological benefits. However, despite Tanzania being regarded as a global genetic center of diversity of S. birrea, information on the subspecies ecological niches is lacking. We aimed to model ecological niches of S. birrea subspecies in Tanzania under the current and future climates. Ecological niches under the current climate were modelled by using ecological niche models in MaxEnt using climatic, edaphic, and topographical variables, and subspecies occurrence data. The Hadley Climate Center and National Center for Atmospheric Research's Earth System Models were used to predict ecological niches under the medium and high greenhouse gases emission scenarios for the years 2050 and 2080. Area under the curves (AUCs) were used to assess the accuracy of the models. The results show that the models were robust, with AUCs of 0.85–0.95. Annual and seasonal precipitation, elevation, and soil cation exchange capacity are the key environmental factors that define the ecological niches of the S. birrea subspecies. Ecological niches of subsp. caffra, multifoliata, and birrea are currently found in 30, 22, and 21 regions, and occupy 184 814 km2, 139 918 km2, and 28 446 km2 of Tanzania's land area respectively, which will contract by 0.4–44% due to climate change. Currently, 31–51% of ecological niches are under Tanzania’s protected areas network. The findings are important in guiding the development of conservation and domestication strategies for the S. birrea subspecies in Tanzania.

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“…Our findings on the location of ecological niche of subsp. caffra are consistent with Hall et al (2002), Woiso (2011), and Jinga et al (2022, for subspecies birrea and multifoliata.…”

Section: Ecological Niches Of Sclerocarya Birrea Subspecies Under The...supporting

confidence: 90%

Modelling ecological niches of Sclerocarya birrea subspecies in Tanzania under the current and future climates

Munna,

Amuri,

Hieronimo

et al. 2023

Silva Fenn

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“…Expansion of suitable habitat of mopane under climate change is consistent with other results of species adapted to drought conditions, such as Sclerocarya birrea subsp. caffra (Jinga et al, 2022), Abies alba , Fagus sylvatica , Fraxinus excelsior , Quercus robur , Quercus petraea (Dyderski et al, 2018), Adansonia digitata (Assogba et al, 2022) and Boswellia dalzielli (Esser & Weldemariam, 2023). Withstanding climate change has been attributed to evolutionary drought tolerance characteristics of the species.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Sclerocarya birrea subsp. caffra , extensive lateral root systems, long seed viability and rapid resprouting after fire damage are notable drought tolerance characteristics (Jinga et al, 2022). Shedding off of leaves (Bamba et al, 2019), closure of stomata (De Smedt et al, 2012) and storage of water in a succulent stem (Wan et al, 2021) are some coping mechanisms of Adansonia digitata in xeromorphic environments.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mopane (Colophospermum mopane): A potential winner under climate change in southern Africa

Jinga,

Mureva,

Manyangadze

2023

Austral Ecology

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Distribution and abundance under climate change of particularly non‐timber forest product tree species is vital since they sustain many livelihoods, especially in rural sub‐Saharan Africa. The aim of the study was to determine the current and future natural range of mopane (Colophospermum mopane (J. Kirk ex Benth.) J. Léonard, Fabaceae), a dominant tree species in mopane woodlands of southern Africa. An ensemble model was built in ‘biomod2’ from eight algorithms and used to estimate the current and future distribution. Seven bioclimatic variables and 269 occurrence records were used to calibrate individual models that were later combined into an ensemble model. The ensemble model was projected to two time periods, 2041–2060 and 2081–2100, under two shared socio‐economic pathways (SSPs), SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5, and three general circulation models (GCMs). The ensemble model showed high performance (KAPPA = 0.770, ROC = 0.961, TSS = 0.792, ACCURACY = 0.900). A map of the current distribution shows occurrence predominantly in low‐lying areas, including the Zambezi, Save and Limpopo valleys, Okavango and Cuvelai basins, and in southern and central Mozambique. Projection maps show expansion under all SSPs, GCMs and time periods. Averaged across GCMs in 2041–2060, the range expanded by 22.37% under SSP2‐4.5, and by 19.94% under SSP5‐8.5. In 2081–2100, the range expanded by 20.43% under SSP2‐4.5, and by 27.62% under SSP5‐8.5. Notably, the range expansion was highest under SSP5‐8.5, an SSP that envisages unmitigated greenhouse gas release and the largest mean global temperature increase. It is highly likely that mopane is not directly threatened by climate change. Indirect climate change threats, however, remain uncertain.

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“…While C. cosyra may not have exhibited much plasticity, it did have high basal tolerance to desiccation. The main hosts of C. cosyra are tropical marulas Sclerocarya birrea and mangoes, with the former growing in highly seasonal savannah environments with cold dry winters and hot wet summers (Jinga et al, 2022; Mansourian et al, 2018; Theron et al, 2017). Therefore, C. cosyra is also not expected to regularly encounter desiccation or temperature stress, which would require a pronounced plastic response.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Phenotypic plasticity in desiccation physiology of closely related, range restricted and broadly distributed fruit fly species

2022

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Variation in geographical range size among closely related species may result from differences in physiological traits, such as desiccation tolerance, that enable these species to interact with their environment or adapt to new surroundings. We tested the hypothesis that insect species with a broader geographical range have either a higher basal desiccation tolerance or mount a more plastic response than more narrowly distributed species by exposing four fruit fly species (Ceratitis capitata, Ceratitis rosa, Ceratitis cosyra and Ceratitis podocarpi) to one of three acclimation treatments (control: standard relative humidity (RH) and temperature; desiccation: standard temperature and low humidity; and temperature: low RH and high temperature) and measuring metabolic rate, activity, water loss rates and survival. The targeted physiological responses differed between species and acclimation treatments. Survival of the widely distributed C. capitata improved by up to 43% after short‐term exposure to high temperature and desiccation (35°C; 0% RH) treatment, while survival in the more narrowly distributed species only improved by 4%–30% after a desiccation treatment (25°C; 0% RH). Less water was lost by broadly distributed C. capitata through excretion after both high temperature and desiccation treatments, but only activity and respiratory water loss (RWL) were reduced after the temperature treatment, and total water loss and cuticular water loss declined after the desiccation treatment. The narrowly distributed C. rosa also lost less water through excretion after both acclimation treatments but showed reduced cuticular and RWL only after desiccation. While basal tolerance in C. cosyra was high, acclimation responses in this species and C. podocarpi were insignificant in that they did not produce a measurable survival benefit. Broadly distributed species successfully employed unique combinations of physiological strategies, with some having highly flexible responses to stressful environmental conditions, which ultimately results in beneficial acclimation to enhance survival during dry conditions. By contrast, range restricted species showed limited responses to desiccation stress. Flexible desiccation responses likely contribute to species geographical ranges in changing climate conditions. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

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Marula (Sclerocarya birrea subsp. caffra, Anacardiaceae) thrives under climate change in sub‐Saharan Africa

Cited by 6 publications

References 93 publications

Modelling ecological niches of Sclerocarya birrea subspecies in Tanzania under the current and future climates

Modelling ecological niches of Sclerocarya birrea subspecies in Tanzania under the current and future climates

Mopane (Colophospermum mopane): A potential winner under climate change in southern Africa

Phenotypic plasticity in desiccation physiology of closely related, range restricted and broadly distributed fruit fly species

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