2024
DOI: 10.1021/acs.jctc.3c01134
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Markov State Models: To Optimize or Not to Optimize

Robert E. Arbon,
Yanchen Zhu,
Antonia S. J. S. Mey

Abstract: Markov state models (MSM) are a popular statistical method for analyzing the conformational dynamics of proteins including protein folding. With all statistical and machine learning (ML) models, choices must be made about the modeling pipeline that cannot be directly learned from the data. These choices, or hyperparameters, are often evaluated by expert judgment or, in the case of MSMs, by maximizing variational scores such as the VAMP-2 score. Modern ML and statistical pipelines often use automatic hyperparam… Show more

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Cited by 3 publications
(1 citation statement)
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“…This enables the construction of a transition probability matrix and definition of metastable states, which can then be used to create a final model, delivering insights into the conditional probabilities of being in a particular state and transitioning to another state at a specific time (also known as lag time). In simple terms, the MSM can be described as a network, in which the metastable states are represented as nodes, while the edges represent the transition rates between those states. …”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This enables the construction of a transition probability matrix and definition of metastable states, which can then be used to create a final model, delivering insights into the conditional probabilities of being in a particular state and transitioning to another state at a specific time (also known as lag time). In simple terms, the MSM can be described as a network, in which the metastable states are represented as nodes, while the edges represent the transition rates between those states. …”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%