Markets and Famines: Evidence from Nineteenth‐Century Finland

O'Grada, Cormac

doi:10.1086/452516

Cited by 46 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 8 publications

(1 reference statement)

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“…When defining famine, it is insufficient just to take account of harvest patterns, although famine is characterized by a considerable shortfall in food intake by a sizable number of people and is often rooted in a preceding crop failure. Poorly functioning grain markets may have exacerbated the crisis in Finland in the mid-1860s but, in a study of the regional grain market in Sweden, Ó'Gráda (2001) refutes the claim that poorly functioning grain markets were primarily responsible for the Finnish famine. Many authors emphasize that the social disruption and economic chaos caused by a famine ( Pitkänen 1993 ; Ó'Gráda 2007a , b ) is as devastating—and sometimes even more so—than the food short-' ages themselves ( Ó'Gráda 2007a , b ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…As Ó'Gráda (2007b , p. 7) points out: ‘most famines in poor economies are associated with the impact of extreme weather […] on the harvest, although, […] dramatic crop failures are neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for famine’. In the Finnish case the backwardness of the agricultural sector together with a lack of adequate policy response from the authorities were primarily responsible for turning a crop failure into a famine ( Ó'Gráda 2001 ). Comparing Sweden and Finland, Nelson (1988) gives three reasons why the situation in Finland deteriorated into a crisis while that in Sweden did not: first, the Finnish harvest failure was more severe; second, the relief funds provided in Finland were not adequate, because the severity of the situation was underestimated and action was delayed until 1868; finally, while both countries were strongly agrarian at that time, the percentage of people in occupations other than farming was greater in Sweden.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A re-analysis of the long-term effects on life expectancy of the Great Finnish Famine of 1866–68

2013

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The results of studies exploring the long-term consequences of famine during foetal or infant development are inconsistent. We tested the hypothesis that selection forces occurring during a famine change the distribution of frailty in the affected cohorts, possibly hiding negative long-term effects. Using mortality data for Finland, gathered from the Human Mortality Database, we explored the effect of being born during the Great Finnish Famine of 1866–68 by comparing mortality at age 60 and over for the 1850–89 births, taking into account unobserved cohort heterogeneity. Contemporaneous Swedish cohorts, unexposed to the famine, were used as an additional control group. When cohort heterogeneity is accounted for, a lower life expectancy at age 60 for male cohorts in Finland born during the famine is observed. The results for females are less conclusive. No substantial changes are seen in the Swedish cohorts. In order to provide consistent estimates of the long-run effects of famines, selection forces need to be considered.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A re-analysis of the long-term effects on life expectancy of the Great Finnish Famine of 1866–68

2013

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“…Although the risk of entry remains high, the disease has never been notified in this country. Some of the reasons may include good biosecurity on pig farms, the relatively isolated and heavily forested nature of the country (coniferous and mixed forest, with zones of transitional woodland shrub) (Gráda, ; EEA, ), and the extremely short days in winter. All these factors hinder sampling and detection of WB populations.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Update on the Risk of Introduction of African Swine Fever by Wild Boar into Disease-Free European Union Countries

Bosch

Rodrı́guez

Iglesias

et al. 2016

Transbound Emerg Dis

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Despite efforts to prevent the appearance and spread of African swine fever (ASF) in the European Union, several Member States are now affected (Lithuania, Poland, Latvia and Estonia). Disease appearance in 2014 was associated with multiple entrances linked to wild boar movement from endemic areas (EFSA Journal, 8, 2015, 1556), but the risk of new introductions remains high (Gallardo et al., Porcine Health Management, 1, and 21) as ASF continues to be active in endemic countries (Russian Federation, Belarus and Ukraine). Since 2014, the number of ASF notifications has increased substantially, particularly in wild boar (WB), in parallel with slow but constant geographical advance of the disease. This situation suggests a real risk of further disease spread into other Member States, posing a great threat to pig production in the EU. Following the principles of the risk-based veterinary surveillance, this article applies a methodology developed by De la Torre et al. (Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 62, and 272) to assess the relative risk of new introductions of ASF by natural movements of WB according to the current epidemiological situation. This update incorporates the most recent available data and an improved version of the most important risk estimator: an optimized cartographic tool of WB distribution to analyse wild boar suitable habitat. The highest relative risk values were estimated for Slovakia (5) and Romania (5), followed by Finland (4), Czech Republic (3) and Germany (3). Relative risk for Romania and Finland is associated mainly with disease entrance from endemic areas such as the Russian Federation and Ukraine, where the disease is currently spreading; relative risk for Germany and Czech Republic is associated mainly with the potential progress of the disease through the EU, and relative risk for Slovakia is associated with both pathways. WB habitat is the most important risk estimator, whereas WB density is the least significant, suggesting that WB presence is more relevant than density. These results can provide actionable advice for dealing with risk. They can be directly used to inform risk-based national strategies and identify countries that may need to pay greater attention to surveillance or conduct additional evaluations at the subnational level.

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“…Following Engle and Granger (1987), time series of the same order of integration set into a co-integrating regression equation with a stationary error can be used to build an error-correction model. In related literature, Ó Gráda (2001Gráda ( , 2005, error-correction model approach was used to test whether and when famines changed the price adjustment process between markets in European history. Cumbersome controls to inter-regional trade were not unknown in historical Europe, a similarity to contemporary India.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Potato Market Integration Analysis for India

Salmensuu

2017

Review of Market Integration

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We constructed co-integration relation and Engle-Granger type errorcorrection models for the wholesale potato markets of three Indian regions. In addition to the standard result of the existence of errorcorrection mechanisms in Indian potato markets, the chosen setting allows for inspection of how these market areas differ in their return to the co-integrating relation. The northern area differed from the other market relations studied with its slower return to equilibrium, 8.0-8.6 weeks compared to 5.0-6.3 weeks. The result may indicate that the Delhi and Agra markets are central playing grounds for speculators, speculators manipulating potato prices farther and longer time away from the natural price relation. Short-run or same-week elasticities between the markets studied ranged from 0.12 to 0.34. Long-run elasticities ranged from 0.55 to 1.11. Short-run effect has to be multiplied by approximately four to obtain the long-run effect.

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Markets and Famines: Evidence from Nineteenth‐Century Finland

Cited by 46 publications

References 8 publications

A re-analysis of the long-term effects on life expectancy of the Great Finnish Famine of 1866–68

A re-analysis of the long-term effects on life expectancy of the Great Finnish Famine of 1866–68

Update on the Risk of Introduction of African Swine Fever by Wild Boar into Disease-Free European Union Countries

A Potato Market Integration Analysis for India

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