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Adrian BussINSEAD; e-mail: adrian.buss@insead.edu
AbstractIn this paper, we conduct an analysis of the implications of capital controls for financial stability. We study a financial transaction (Tobin) tax applicable to cross-border capital flows in a multi-good, multi-country dynamic equilibrium model with incomplete financial markets and heterogeneous agents. The results derived from the model suggest that the impact of capital controls may vary considerably across market segments. In currency markets, capital controls reduce the volatility. However, in international stock markets, their introduction amplifies price movements, thus, increases the volatility; but it reduces a country's vulnerability to external shocks, thereby limiting spillover effects.Keywords: capital controls, financial transaction (Tobin) tax, financial stability, incomplete financial markets, general equilibrium JEL classification: F21, F31, G12, G15
Non-Technical SummaryCapital inflow controls, that is, instruments that aim to reduce capital flows into a country or into specific segments of a country's financial markets, have been used and advocated for some decades.For example, as a reaction to fast international capital flows, Tobin proposed to "throw some sand in the wheels" of the international financial markets and introduce capital controls. Lately However, as the empirical evidence for the effectiveness of capital controls is rather inconclusive and theoretical analyses have yielded mixed evidence, the use of capital controls was always accompanied by an intense debate. The objective of this paper is to assess the effectiveness of capital inflow controls and understand their multilateral implications in a dynamic model. Specifically, we want to understand through which channels capital inflow controls work and how effective they are, e.g., if they can reduce exchange rate or stock market volatility, limit the cross-border propagation of shocks or limit currency appreciations. Furthermore, we assess the adverse consequences of their imposition on foreign exchange and stock markets, as well as wealth and welfare.We therefore study a model of a full-information, international, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium economy with uncertainty generated by output as well as demand shocks where each country's financial market consists of a risk-free bond and a risky stock. In this model we characterize capital controls as a transaction tax o...