Market Analysis of Natural Gas Supply and Demand in East Java Province to Enable a Sustainable Scenario Using System Dynamics Simulation

Kusuma, Jeffry; Artana, Ketut Buda; Dinariyana, A. A. B.

doi:10.1088/1755-1315/557/1/012041

Cited by 3 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…There will be deficit of supply every year except for 2023. The maximum daily deficit is 230.1 mmscfd in the year 2022 (Kusuma et al, 2020). In 2019 -2022 the gas supply will oversupply in East Java.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Natural Gas Sales Optimization Strategy of PT XYZ in East Java

Sajiwo¹,

Sumarwan²,

Asnawi³

2022

jabm

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The condition of supply and demand for natural gas in East Java will experience dynamics, based on government work plans for Java gas pipeline, Tuban refinery and new gas field development. This research aims to analysis and simulate the gas market from 2021 to 2035 and develop gas marketing strategy to optimize PT XYZ's revenue. The Dynamic Model System method is used in scenario and market analysis, the AHP method is used for segmentation, targeting and positioning, while the Focus Group Discussion is used for the implementation strategy of optimizing revenue from gas sales. The results of the study show that during the period 2022 -2025, the gas market in East Java experienced an excess of gas supply by 249 mmscfd, the second period in 2026-2030 the gas market was still a surplus of 53 mmscfd, but in 2030-2035 the gas market experienced a shortage of 260 mmscfd. PT XYZ's strategy is to prioritize the fertilizer sector, PGN industry and electricity through gas traders as the main buyers by using the main criteria for volume, utilization period and gas price as a reference in preparing scenarios and implementation strategies. The scenario is optimistic that the improve in gas production and maximize gas marketing will increase PT XYZ's revenue and position as the market leader in East Java.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Natural Gas Sales Optimization Strategy of PT XYZ in East Java

Sajiwo¹,

Sumarwan²,

Asnawi³

2022

jabm

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“…Several researchers [5] have done a similar research works in the topics of natural gas supply and demand study in china and the result had revealed to the fact of an increasing demand thas has led to a recommendation to raise the gas supply capacity in China. Another more recent work done by J. Kusuma to asses the some for the context of East Java, Indonesia [3] he foresaw East Java will have to face a deficit in the upcoming year despite of few attempts to enhance the infrastructure capacity such as Teluk Lamong new LNG terminal. Similar to that of J.Kusuma, the most recent study was also conducted by Haekal [6] with conclusion of suggesting an additional gas infrastructure at certain area as alternative to solve the future gas deficit problem in east Java.…”

Section: Conceptual Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The biggest yet undeveloped reserves are located in East Natuna Block, holding estimated about 49.6 TSCF, also several potential areas as West Papua and Maluku. At the prevailing rate of consumption with assumption no new discoveries, the current reserves would probably last for about 50 years [3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

System Dynamics Modelling for a Sustainable Natural Gas Supply and Demand in Indonesia to Meet up the Additional Demand of 52 Converted Power Plants

Purwosaputra

Artana

Dinariyana

2022

IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci.

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US Trade Representatives at WTO had recently excluded Indonesia in the list of Least Developed countries. One of the reason behind the decision was that considering the potential economic of Indonesia that has consistently shown positive trend of growth. As the economic and population growth, the energy demand in Indonesia is also increasing over the time. Indonesia has an abundant natural gas reserves and in fact is the largest reserves in Southeast Asia. In line with the increasing of global awareness toward the sustainable development and environmental concerns, choices over an affordable source of energy with a less carbon footprint is inevitably. With the latest LNG technology, has made distribution even possible to reach remote areas of Indonesian archipelago. The Indonesian government had set up a strategy to promote the use of natural gas in power generation. The Ministerial Energy and Mining Resources Decree No. 13 K/13/MEM/2020 (Ministerial Energy and Mining Resources, 2020e) issued, January 2020, has mandated the state owned enterprise PERTAMINA to establish LNG supply within 2 years time frame to support the conversion of 52 power plants from diesel fueled to natural gas. This study, is offering stages of research, first is determining supply and demand of natural gas in Indonesia, and then conducting a market analysis. A market review analysis on gas supply and demand is done upon various sectors, ie power plants (in relation to additional demand for the conversion of 52 power plants), industries, transportation and households. From which, it will be analyzed, whether or not the gas supply meet the demand. The result of the simulation is revealing the fact that there will be deficit of supply starting sometime in 2031 (much earlier than Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre’s prediction by 2040), with short gap of about 55 MTPA by end of simulation time, thus if the Government is deciding to maintain the existing export commitment.

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“…An Iranian researcher has used system dynamics model simulation to forecast the future supply and demand of natural gas in Iran and to assess the public policy in determining natural gas pricing in the entire Iranian Energy system. [7], a more recent study has been conducted by group of Indonesian researchers toward the natural gas supply & demand situation in one of Indonesian Province i.e East Java, they used system dynamics model simulation to predict the future shortage of supply and recommending an infrastructure development plant to anticipate the short of supply in the future [8] and [9].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The largest undeveloped gas reserves are located in the offshore East Natuna Block, which holds approximately 49.6 TSCF, there are also many high potential areas like West Papua and Maluku. At the current rate of consumption and assuming no new discoveries, existing reserves would last for around 50 years [3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

System Dynamics Modelling Scenarios for The Import Receiving Infrastructures Capacity Plan & Development in anticipating Future Deficits of Natural Gas Supply in Indonesia.

Purwosaputra

Artana

Dinariyana

2022

IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci.

Self Cite

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Indonesia is one amongst the biggest natural gas reserves country in south East Asia, with total reserve of about 142,71 TSCF in 2018. Indonesian demand for energy is also increasing over the time in line with its economic and population growth. The improved of global consciousness toward the sustainable environmental issues, has led in to the choice over an affordable source of energy with a less carbon footprint. On the other hand the natural gas supply and domestic production is depleting. At the current rate of consumption and assuming no new reserves discoveries, sooner or later Indonesia will have to face deficit in gas supply. This study, is first aimed to forecast the Indonesia supply and demand situation of natural gas in years to come, and then performing an analysis and assessment toward the availability and adequacy of the required infrastructures especially receiving terminals facilitating for gas import in anticipation of future deficit of gas supply in Indonesia. From which, it will be further analyzed, the geographical distribution of the demand and then potential short of supply in several regions and areas where the demand are most concentrated. Thus few basis System Dynamics scenarios of public policies were simulated for 30 years running simulation. System Dynamics model simulation has been well known as a powerful tool to represent a complex industrial problems such as national energy systems. The result is unveiled the fact that additional import receiving terminals and storage facility is required at certain areas where the deficits most likely exist, and most of them in fact are in Western Zone of Indonesian.

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Market Analysis of Natural Gas Supply and Demand in East Java Province to Enable a Sustainable Scenario Using System Dynamics Simulation

Cited by 3 publications

References 5 publications

Natural Gas Sales Optimization Strategy of PT XYZ in East Java

Natural Gas Sales Optimization Strategy of PT XYZ in East Java

System Dynamics Modelling for a Sustainable Natural Gas Supply and Demand in Indonesia to Meet up the Additional Demand of 52 Converted Power Plants

System Dynamics Modelling Scenarios for The Import Receiving Infrastructures Capacity Plan & Development in anticipating Future Deficits of Natural Gas Supply in Indonesia.

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