Marked Cards in the Pack: Using Playing Cards to Teach the Importance of Sample Size & Testing Assumptions in Capture–Recapture Estimations of Population Size

Abstract

Estimating population size is essential for many applications in population ecology, so capture–recapture techniques to do this are often taught in secondary school classrooms and introductory university units. However, few classroom simulations of capture–recapture consider the sensitivity of results to sampling intensity, the important concept that the population size calculated is an estimate with error attached, or the consequences of violating assumptions underpinning particular capture–recapture models. We describe a simple approach to teaching the Lincoln index method of capture–recapture using packs of playing cards. Students can trial different sampling intensities, calculate 95% confidence intervals for population estimates, and explore the consequences of violating specific assumptions.

An Authentic Demonstration of the Mark–Recapture Technique Using Ant Colonies

“…This movement can make it difficult to rediscover marked individuals on the second round of capturing. Due to these constraints, most lessons that demonstrate the mark – recapture technique do so with captive animals (Olvido & Blumer, 2005; Whiteley et al, 2007) or with inanimate objects (Goetze & Rodriguez, 2018; Calver & Blake, 2020). Research suggests that authentic scientific educational experiences, meaning experiences where students perform actual scientific techniques to gather novel data that support a scientific principle or learning outcome, can improve student persistence in science, technology, engineering and mathematics, likelihood of graduating with honors, critical thinking, and self-reported learning gains (Brownell et al, 2012; Gasper & Gardner, 2013; Indorf et al, 2019).…”