Marine Forecast for the Easternmost Part of the Black Sea

Abstract

Modelling and forecasting of dynamic processes and distribution of various substances of anthropogenic and natural origin in coastal and shelf zones of the seas and oceans are of great interest due to the high anthropogenic load of these zones. The aim of this paper is to present some examples of modelling and short-term forecasting of dynamic fields – the current, temperature and salinity in the easternmost Black Sea covering Georgian sector of the Black Sea and adjacent water area using a high-resolution regional model of the Black Sea dynamics. The z-level regional model is based on a full system of ocean hydro-thermodynamics equations and is nested in the basin-scale model of the Black Sea dynamics of Marine Hydrophysical Institute (Sevastopol). To solve the model equation system, a numerical algorithm based on the splitting method is used. Calculations show that circulation processes in the easternmost water area of the Black Sea are characterized by a permanent alternation of different circulation modes with the formation of mesoscale and submesoscale eddies throughout the year, which significantly affect the formation of thermohaline fields; atmospheric wind forcing substantially determines not only the peculiarities of the sea surface horizontal circulation, also the vertical structure of the current field.