Marine Ecosystem Regime Shifts Induced by Climate and Overfishing

Möllmann, Christian; Diekmann, Rabea

doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-398315-2.00004-1

Cited by 129 publications

(155 citation statements)

References 136 publications

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“…Also, the spatial scales at which key drivers operate are critical [11,12] as spatial averaging has a blurring effect on the evaluation of the roles of potential mechanisms [13]. Finally, both the confounding effects of events aggregated in space or time [14] and challenges associated with resolving the interacting effects of regional-to-basin-scale climate drivers on local dynamics [15][16][17] add to these difficulties, as large-scale regime shift drivers influence processes operating at the scale of individual organisms. Therefore, accounting for withinsystem spatial heterogeneity in drivers may account for some of the differential responses within and among ecosystems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…R. Soc. B 370: 20130271 [11,[26][27][28][29] and continue to provide insight into the timing [17,30] and responses of large marine ecosystems and of marine fisheries to changing ocean conditions and exploitation that together are known to contribute to regime shifts [17,30,31]. This enhanced activity is partly due to the increasing availability of timeseries data for ocean climate and of survey-derived geospatial information for multiple trophic levels, and an expanding array of analytical frameworks and detection methods [2,3,7,32] that have allowed researchers to determine whether and where regime shifts have occurred.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The importance of within-system spatial variation in drivers of marine ecosystem regime shifts

Fisher

Casini

Frank

et al. 2015

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Comparative analyses of the dynamics of exploited marine ecosystems have led to differing hypotheses regarding the primary causes of observed regime shifts, while many ecosystems have apparently not undergone regime shifts. These varied responses may be partly explained by the decade-old recognition that within-system spatial heterogeneity in key climate and anthropogenic drivers may be important, as recent theoretical examinations have concluded that spatial heterogeneity in environmental characteristics may diminish the tendency for regime shifts. Here, we synthesize recent, empirical within-system spatio-temporal analyses of some temperate and subarctic large marine ecosystems in which regime shifts have (and have not) occurred. Examples from the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bengula Current, North Sea, Barents Sea and Eastern Scotian Shelf reveal the largely neglected importance of considering spatial variability in key biotic and abiotic influences and species movements in the context of evaluating and predicting regime shifts. We highlight both the importance of understanding the scale-dependent spatial dynamics of climate influences and key predator–prey interactions to unravel the dynamics of regime shifts, and the utility of spatial downscaling of proposed mechanisms (as evident in the North Sea and Barents Sea) as a means of evaluating hypotheses originally derived from among-system comparisons.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The importance of within-system spatial variation in drivers of marine ecosystem regime shifts

Fisher

Casini

Frank

et al. 2015

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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“…of appropriate length for our multi-decadal investigation. Even if the data used in this investigation represent mostly one trophic level, it has to be noted that other studies have identified ecosystemwide regime shifts in most of these areas [6,8,9,11,36,43,44,47]. Second, we identified temporal shifts in all these systems, individually and in aggregate, and examined their relationships to (i) large-scale climatic indices (Northern Hemisphere temperature (NHT) anomalies, Arctic Oscillation (AO), Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)), and (ii) spatial patterns of change in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea-level pressure (SLP) over the NH.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Synchronous marine pelagic regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere

Beaugrand

Conversi

Chiba

et al. 2015

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Regime shifts are characterized by sudden, substantial and temporally persistent changes in the state of an ecosystem. They involve major biological modifications and often have important implications for exploited living resources. In this study, we examine whether regime shifts observed in 11 marine systems from two oceans and three regional seas in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) are synchronous, applying the same methodology to all. We primarily infer marine pelagic regime shifts from abrupt shifts in zooplankton assemblages, with the exception of the East Pacific where ecosystem changes are inferred from fish. Our analyses provide evidence for quasi-synchronicity of marine pelagic regime shifts both within and between ocean basins, although these shifts lie embedded within considerable regional variability at both year-to-year and lower-frequency time scales. In particular, a regime shift was detected in the late 1980s in many studied marine regions, although the exact year of the observed shift varied somewhat from one basin to another. Another regime shift was also identified in the mid- to late 1970s but concerned less marine regions. We subsequently analyse the main biological signals in relation to changes in NH temperature and pressure anomalies. The results suggest that the main factor synchronizing regime shifts on large scales is NH temperature; however, changes in atmospheric circulation also appear important. We propose that this quasi-synchronous shift could represent the variably lagged biological response in each ecosystem to a large-scale, NH change of the climatic system, involving both an increase in NH temperature and a strongly positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. Further investigation is needed to determine the relative roles of changes in temperature and atmospheric pressure patterns and their resultant teleconnections in synchronizing regime shifts at large scales.

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“…Ocean warming and overfishing represent the two main drivers affecting ecological processes in marine environments all around the world, often with synergistic effects (Möllmann and Diekmann, 2012). All this has to be taken into the account, as it is could be difficult to disentangle them when analyzing temporal patterns of nekton assemblages.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Influence of the Spatial Scale on the Fishery Landings-SST Relationship

et al. 2016

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Possible effects of the spatial scale of analysis on the relationship between fishery landings and the water temperature in the Mediterranean Sea have been investigated using the FAO capture database . The analysis was performed by dividing species in three thermal affinity categories: cold, temperate and warm-water species. Results showed significant changes in fishery landings composition during the last four decades, in terms of the relative contribution of cold, temperate and warm-water species to landings; moreover, the presence of a strong influence of water warming in determining the landings temporal pattern has been confirmed. This relationship, however, resulted to be not homogenous across the tested spatial scales (entire Mediterranean basin, three main sub-basins, eight FAO areas). The best models (based on the Akaike Information Criterion), were the ones fitted at the finer spatial definition (i.e., the eight FAO areas) for all the three thermal affinity categories. The recorded relationship showed clear differences in terms of direction, depending on both areas and thermal affinity groups. Cold-water species showed a negative relationship with the increasing water temperature in all the FAO areas, being partially replaced by temperate-water ones, with the exception of the Adriatic and Black Sea (the coldest areas in the Mediterranean basin), where a moderate increase in the water temperature is still favoring the cold affinity group. This kind of results could be useful within the context of the management plans definition, within a context of climate changes.

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Marine Ecosystem Regime Shifts Induced by Climate and Overfishing

Cited by 129 publications

References 136 publications

The importance of within-system spatial variation in drivers of marine ecosystem regime shifts

The importance of within-system spatial variation in drivers of marine ecosystem regime shifts

Synchronous marine pelagic regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere

The Influence of the Spatial Scale on the Fishery Landings-SST Relationship

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