Mapping the risk of quarantine pest Sternochetus mangiferae under different climate change scenarios through species distribution modelling

Baradevanal, Gundappa; Chander, Subhash; Singh, Hari Shankar; Reddy, D. Srinivasa; Rajan, Shailendra

doi:10.1007/s42690-023-01000-y

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…We randomly assigned 25% of the species distribution points as the test dataset, while the remaining 75% were used as the training dataset. To assess the contribution and importance of each variable to the model construction, we conducted jackknife analysis (Fand et al, 2020;Baradevanal et al, 2023;Ullah et al, 2023). Additionally, we utilized the response curve function to determine the threshold range of the impact of individual environmental variables on the distribution of P. yunnanensis.…”

Section: Maxent Model Construction and Results Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of future potential distributions of Pinus yunnanensis varieties under climate change

Feng,

Wang,

Xian

et al. 2023

Front. For. Glob. Change

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Pinus yunnanensis Franch. (Pinaceae) is an important endemic tree species that serves as a critical constituent of the forest ecosystems and plays a significant role in forestry economic production in southwest China. P. yunnanensis comprises three varieties: var. yunnanensis, var. pygmaea and var. tenuifolia, with significant variation in traits, such as height and leaf size. This study aims to characterize the habitat conditions of the three varieties and predict their potential future distributions by employing MaxEnt model. Temperature seasonality (BIO4) emerged as the most influential factor affecting the distribution of var. yunnanensis; isothermally (BIO3) stands out as the most critical factor for the distribution of var. pygmaea; whereas mean annual fire occurrence (MAF) had the greatest impact on the distribution of var. tenuifolia. Under future climate conditions, the highly and moderately suitable habitats for all the three varieties are projected to decrease, while the lowly suitable habitats are projected to increase. The distribution centroids of all the three varieties are anticipated to shift to higher latitudes. Our study characterized the habitat conditions and predicted the potential future distribution of the three Pinus yunnanensis varieties, which could help the conservation and utilization of Pinus yunnanensis varieties.

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Section: Maxent Model Construction and Results Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of future potential distributions of Pinus yunnanensis varieties under climate change

Feng,

Wang,

Xian

et al. 2023

Front. For. Glob. Change

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“…Given the limited biological information available about S. internatus, we utilized MaxEnt for species distribution modeling as it effectively leverages presence-only data, potentially revealing informative distributions before the pest invasion (Yeh et al 2021;Baradevanal et al 2023;da Silva et al 2023). We used MaxEnt version 3.4.4 (Phillips et al 2023) in R version 4.3.2 (R Core Team 2023) with the RStudio interface (version 2023.09.01 + 494) (RStudio Team 2023) and the 'dismo' package (Hijmans et al 2022), to predict the global and Taiwanese distribution of the weevil.…”

Section: Model Parameter Settings and Optimizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting habitat suitability for the Australian cycad-attacking weevil (Siraton internatus) under climate change

Hsaio,

Liao

2024

Biol Invasions

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Cycads hold important economic and conservation value. Some species are extensively used in landscaping, while others are endangered and legally protected. The Australian cycad-attacking weevil, Siraton internatus, is notably destructive, occasionally causing infestations and invasions across various countries. This study simulated habitat suitability for S. internatus to assess its potential invasion and the impact of climate change. Habitat suitability was evaluated under current climate and four climate change scenarios over two time frames (2050 and 2090). Furthermore, we investigated the threat posed by S. internatus to cycad reserves, using Taiwanese reserves as a representative case. Our MaxEnt predictions demonstrated high accuracy, meeting multiple evaluation criteria. We explored the potential distribution of S. internatus within Australia and internationally, identifying suitable habitats in Africa, the Americas, Asia, and Europe. The case study highlighted the low habitat suitability within the two Taiwanese cycad reserves, which is projected to decrease to unsuitable levels under future climate change scenarios for this weevil species. Moreover, our results revealed that suitable habitat for S. internatus is projected to contract globally under all climate scenarios and time periods, but expansion in Chile and the southern Himalaya (e.g., Nepal). This study provides valuable insights into cycad conservation and pest invasion risks. The results support both global and local efforts to manage the invasion threats from this destructive Australian cycad-attacking weevil species. It also accentuates the urgency for continuous biosecurity inspections and prevention of exporting mature cycad caudexes from Australia.

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Mapping the risk of quarantine pest Sternochetus mangiferae under different climate change scenarios through species distribution modelling

Cited by 2 publications

References 32 publications

Prediction of future potential distributions of Pinus yunnanensis varieties under climate change

Prediction of future potential distributions of Pinus yunnanensis varieties under climate change

Predicting habitat suitability for the Australian cycad-attacking weevil (Siraton internatus) under climate change

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