Mapping The Involvement Of Eunethta Participants In Eu Research Projects

Abstract

Objectives: Expert elicitation has been proposed as a method for quantifying uncertainty in decision models when evidence from studies is unavailable. Elicitation refers to a formal, structured process of extracting experts' beliefs in probabilistic form. Elicited distributions can vary depending on who we ask and how we ask them. Credibility of elicited distributions relies on strict processes and transparency, yet guidelines on how to select appropriate experts are vague. This paper explores how perception of uncertainty varies between experts and how the choice of expert can affect estimates of uncertainty. MethOds: A literature review was conducted to identify measurable indicators of expertise. Beliefs about a number of parameters were then elicited from a heterogeneous sample of experts to explore how the identified indicators of expertise affect experts' beliefs. Two aspects of their distributions were compared: confidence and the consistency of elicited distributions with those observed in a clinical trial, unknown to experts. Results: Years of experience, numeracy, adaptive thinking scores, research experience and time spent with relevant patients were identified as potential indicators of expertise. Results of the elicitation exercise suggested that experts with limited quantitative skills were more likely to provide implausible distributions (e.g. mode outside the stated range). Experts with no research experience were more prone to overconfidence than experts with research experience. Determinants of consistency with trial results were different when eliciting parameters that have been observed by experts, compared to those that require predicting unknown quantities. cOnclusiOns: Variation in elicited distributions could potentially be explained by expert heterogeneity. The effect of heterogeneity depends on the type of parameter. The optimal method of eliciting quantities should complement the experts involved. Teaching skills required to accurately express opinion in probabilistic form may not always be feasible; when this is the case experts with existing quantitative skills may be preferred.

Famous Hungarian naturalists of Transylvanian origin: course of life of Vilmos Hankó – from Parajd to the Hungarian Academy of Sciences

“…It gave meaning to his entire professional life. In recognition of his wide-ranging interests, he was elected a corresponding member of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences on 4 May 1894, nearly a decade later, at the age of 40 [2,6,7]. The citation includes references to 51 of his independent works.…”

“…His articles and theses are published in the following journals and periodicals, among others: Akadémiai Értesítő, Gyógyszerészi Közlöny, Magyar Chemiai Folyóirat, Mathematikai és Természettudományi Értesítő, Műegyetemi Lapok, Természettudományi Közlöny, Vegytani Lapok (Kolozsvár) [6,7].…”

“…The aim of the Universum series of books (1904)(1905)(1906)(1907)(1908)(1909)(1910)(1911)(1912)(1913)(1914)(1915)(1916)(1917)(1918)(1919)(1920)(1921), launched in 1904, was to spread scientific literacy to a wide audience (family, youth) [6]. All his works and writings on science were characterized by The rare productivity of Vilmos Hankó's literary work is characterized by more than a hundred volumes, 300 booklets, more than a thousand articles and studies published in newspapers and journals (Fig.…”

“…He is buried in the Fiumei street (Kerepesi street) cemetery (plot 34, section N/A, row 5, grave 37). His grave was declared protected by the National Memorial and Commemoration Committee in 2004 [6].…”

“…Ez adott értelmet teljes szakmai életének. Széleskörű érdeklődéséből fakadó munkásságának értékeléseként közel egy évtized múlva, 40 éves korában, 1894. május 4-én a Magyar Tudományos Akadémia levelező tagjává választotta [2,6,7]. Az indoklásban 51 önálló munkájára való hivatkozás szerepel.…”