Mapping regularities in the solar irradiance data using complementary complexity measures

Mihailoviĉ, Dragutin T.; Aksentijevic, Aleksandar; Mihailović, Anja

doi:10.1007/s00477-020-01955-1

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Through this explicit decomposition, we properly represent the high GHI temporal and spatial variability structrure as extensively discussed in previous research (Lehr et al, 2017;Patel et al, 2018;Mihailović et al, 2021). The mixed-effects regression has both fixed and random components (Pinheiro and Bates, 2006).…”

Section: Mixed-effects Regression For Ghi Decaymentioning

confidence: 98%

Stochastic Modeling of Solar Generation During Hurricanes

Ceferino

Lin

2021

Preprint

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The unprecedented growth of solar generation adoption indicates that solar can become a major source of modern and clean energy in just a few decades for our power grids. Despite solar's growing criticality for generation, few studies have proposed models to capture solar generation infrastructure's behavior during natural disasters. Here, we present an integrative methodology to quantify solar generation during hurricanes. The methodology is based on a stochastic model that combines a tropical cyclone hazard model, solar irradiance quantification, solar panel vulnerability, and a model for irradiance decay during hurricane conditions. The irradiance decay model is newly developed through mixed-effect regression on a dataset that merges historical Global Horizontal Irradiance and Atlantic hurricane activity. The proposed stochastic model can be integrated into large grid resilience's models for a wide range of detailed applications that require forecasting power system capacity during storms, such as contingency planning for extreme events. We use the stochastic model to analyze 21 states in the Eastern U.S. for various storms to showcase the methodology's broad applicability. Our results show that for events with return periods of up to 33 years, the loss in generation stems from cloud conditions during hurricanes. However, less frequent events can cause solar panel failure, especially in southern regions of the U.S., triggering complete loss of solar generation. Given that solar generation is expected to grow significantly, these results advocate for higher standards in the structural design of solar panels as well as the deployment of storage for disaster resilience.

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Section: Mixed-effects Regression For Ghi Decaymentioning

confidence: 98%

Stochastic Modeling of Solar Generation During Hurricanes

Ceferino

Lin

2021

Preprint

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“…The best harvesting of solar annual energy of 7771MJ/m 2 (2158.6 kwh/m 2 ) and 7754 MJ/m 2 (2154 kwh/m 2 ) occurred for surfaces with slopes of 20 o and 32 o , respectively. Mihailović et al [14] used Kolmogorov complexity model to capture periodic patterns in solar irradiation data and Aksentijevic-Gibson complexity model to sense global spatial. An extensive and comprehensive review of deep learning-based solar irradiance forecasting models is presented by Kumari and Toshniwal [15].Tahir et al [16] measured hourly global horizontal irradiance at different locations in Pakistan.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Measurement and Assessment of Solar Energy in Zarqa Governorate – Jordan

2023

jjmie

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The purpose of the present work is to measure and assess the potential of solar energy in Zarqa governorate, Jordan. The solar radiation data along a whole one year obtained from Pyranometer which measures the global radiation over horizontal surfaces. Solar data in several different forms, over period of 5 minutes, hour-by-hour, daily and monthly data radiation have been presented. The highest irradiance of 1182 W/ m 2 was recorded on April 9, while the highest of an average irradiance of 632 was recorded on May 28. In June, the maximum hourly radiation of 3.87 MJ/m 2 was recorded in the fourth day at 12:00 PM. The highest daily total radiation of 31.14 MJ/m 2 occurred on June 15, but January 18 has the lowest daily radiation of 1.52 MJ/m 2 .Briefly, the yearly global solar radiation in Zarqa governorate is 7291 MJ/m 2 (2025.3 kwh/m 2 ) for the whole year with an average annual solar radiation per day of 20 MJ/m 2 (5.56 kwh/m 2 ). The total winter and summer solar energy are 1573 MJ/m 2 (437 kwh/m 2 ) 5718 MJ/m 2 (1588.3 kwh/m 2 ), respectively. More specifically, the average annual solar radiation per day is 24 MJ/m 2 (6.67 kwh/m 2 ) in summer and 13 MJ/m 2 (3.6 kwh/m 2 ) in winter for the horizontal surface. Resource assessment data is critical to the markets and the consumers of solar and other renewable energy technologies.

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Stochastic modeling of solar irradiance during hurricanes

Ceferino

Lin

2022

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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Mapping regularities in the solar irradiance data using complementary complexity measures

Cited by 5 publications

References 33 publications

Stochastic Modeling of Solar Generation During Hurricanes

Stochastic Modeling of Solar Generation During Hurricanes

Measurement and Assessment of Solar Energy in Zarqa Governorate – Jordan

Stochastic modeling of solar irradiance during hurricanes

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