Mapping Potential Amplification and Transmission Hotspots for MERS-CoV, Kenya

Abstract

Dromedary camels have been implicated consistently as the source of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) human infections and attention to prevent and control it has focused on camels. To understanding the epidemiological role of camels in the transmission of MERS-CoV, we utilized an iterative empirical process in Geographic Information System (GIS) to identify and qualify potential hotspots for maintenance and circulation of MERS-CoV, and produced risk-based surveillance sites in Kenya. Data on camel population and distribution were used to develop camel density map, while camel farming system was defined using multi-factorial criteria including the agro-ecological zones (AEZs), production and marketing practices. Primary and secondary MERS-CoV seroprevalence data from specific sites were analyzed, and location-based prevalence matching with camel densities was conducted. High-risk convergence points (migration zones, trade routes, camel markets, slaughter slabs) were profiled and frequent cross-border camel movement mapped. Results showed that high cameldense areas and interaction (markets and migration zones) were potential hotspot for transmission and spread.Cross-border contacts occurred with in-migrated herds at hotspot locations. AEZ differential did not influence risk distribution and plausible risk factors for spatial MERS-CoV hotspots were camel densities, previous cases of MERS-CoV, high seroprevalence and points of camel convergences. Although Kenyan camels are predisposed to MERS-CoV, no shedding is documented to date. These potential hotspots, determined using anthropogenic, system and trade characterizations should guide selection of sampling/surveillance sites, high-risk locations, critical areas for interventions and policy development in Kenya, as well as instigate further virological examination of camels.Electronic supplementary material: The online version of this article (https://doi.

Spatial association between primary Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus infection and exposure to dromedary camels in Saudi Arabia

“…Raising camels is part of the Saudi Arabian sociocultural heritage; they are also used for traditional races and festivals (Abdallah & Faye, 2013; Auty, 2001). Increasing demand for camel milk and meat has led to the establishment of peri‐urban dromedary camel husbandry, and these increased interactions between camels and humans introduce a risk of transmission of zoonotic diseases, such as MERS‐CoV, to humans (Gikonyo et al, 2018).…”

Third Tofo Advanced Study Week on Emerging and Re-emerging Viruses, 2018

“…in Nigeria (Kolawole et al, 2017). Furthermore, MERS-CoV is widespread in camels, not only on the Arabian peninsula, but also throughout West and East Africa (Chu et al, 2015;Gikonyo et al, 2018). Even though the genomes of MERS-CoV strains display regional differences that may affect their zoonotic potential (Chu et al, 2018), the omnipresent distribution of the virus in camels certainly constitutes a continuous threat.…”

Force of infection of Middle East respiratory syndrome in dromedary camels in Kenya

“…There are a few possible reasons why this FOI analysis identified the oldest age group as having the highest risk of infection based on model AIC. Questions remain as to whether [13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28]. Furthermore, the oldest age group has a much larger age range than the others, and therefore represents a greater cumulative risk.…”

“…Age-stratified seroprevalence data were collected as part of a cross-sectional survey of MERS-CoV in dromedary camels in Kenya, conducted by the Directorate of Veterinary Services of Kenya and the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations between July 2016 and July 2017. The study area consisted of the five main camel-producing counties in Kenya, as determined previously [23], excluding those where travelling and sampling were not possible due to security concerns ( Fig. 1).…”