Mapping monthly precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation for Ireland with polynomial regression and a digital elevation model

Abstract

A 1 km 2 resolution digital elevation model (DEM) of Ireland was constructed and used as the basis for generating digital maps of the climate parameters required to run a model of ecosystem carbon and water cycling. The DEM had mean absolute errors of 30 m or less for most of Ireland. The ecosystem model requires inputs of monthly precipitation, monthly averaged maximum and minimum daily temperature, and monthly averaged daily solar radiation. Long-term (1951Long-term ( to 1980 averaged monthly data were obtained from sites measuring precipitation (618 sites), temperature (62 sites), and the number of hours of bright sunshine per day ('sunshine hours') (61 sites). Polynomial regression was used to derive a simple model for each monthly climate variable to relate climate to position and elevation on the DEM. Accuracy assessments with subsets of each climate data set determined that polynomial regression can predict average monthly climate in Ireland with mean absolute errors of 5 to 15 mm for monthly precipitation, 0.2 to 0.5°C for monthly averaged maximum and minimum temperature, and 6 to 15 min for monthly averaged sunshine hours. The polynomial regression estimates of climate were compared with estimates from a modified inverse-distance-squared interpolation. Prediction accuracy did not differ between the 2 methods, but the polynomial regression models demanded less time to generate and less computer storage space, greatly decreasing the time required for regional modeling runs.

Objective air temperature mapping for the Iberian Peninsula using spatial interpolation and GIS

“…GIS and Digital Elevation Models (DEM) have been broadly used in the last decade, at least in some steps, in climatological interpolation (Dodson and Marks, 1997;Goodale et al, 1998;Kurtzman and Kadmon, 1999;Price et al, 2000;Daly et al, 2002). Although, implicitly, the main purpose of the interpolation research is usually mapping, there are few studies that complete the process and explicitly develop an exhaustive atlas as in the case of Hargy (1997), Thompson et al (1998) and Sánchez et al (1999).…”

Seasonal precipitation interpolation at the Valencia region with multivariate methods using geographic and topographic information

“…Nevertheless, a major period has been used in order to have a greater number of data when calculating mean values. Other authors have used longer or shorter series with satisfactory results (Hevesi et al, 1992;Goodale et al, 1998;Ninyerola et al, 2000;Marquínez et al, 2003;Vicente-Serrano et al, 2003). Data analysis shows several temporal and spatial lags, showing greater density at more populated areas, mainly corresponding to low areas close to the coast or to flat elevated areas at the interior.…”

The Irish famine of 1740–1741: famine vulnerability and "climate migration"

“…Due to its geographic proximity to the "Gulf stream" (North Atlantic Drift), Ireland normally has a climate characterised by comparatively mild winters and cool summers (Goodale et al, 1998). Some of the cold spells that affected continental Europe, and were typical for the period known as the "Little Ice Age" (LIA), spared Ireland or were less severe there.…”

“…As regards precipitation, Ireland shows large regional differences between the western and the eastern parts of the island. "For sites at sea level, annual precipitation ranged from more than 2000 mm in the west to less than 800 mm in the east" (Goodale et al, 1998). In years diverging from these "average" conditions of Irish climate, extreme events and anomalies often led to food scarcity affecting various segments of society (Crawford, 1993).…”