Mapping lodgepole pine stand structure susceptibility to mountain pine beetle attack across the western United States

Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Jenkins, Jennifer C.

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2007.11.027

Cited by 60 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 15 publications

(25 reference statements)

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“…Across the West, current stand structural conditions make host species susceptible to beetle attack (Hicke and Jenkins 2008), and as warming continues, we might expect that forests will become susceptible to insect attack more frequently (Raffa et al 2008). Mountain pine beetle outbreaks are facilitated when the insect's reproductive cycle is very close to one year and when larvae emerge at an optimal time for feeding, dispersal, and survival of cold seasons (Logan and Powell 2001).…”

Section: Ecological Disturbance and Interaction Of Stressorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of climatic variability and change on forest ecosystems: a comprehensive science synthesis for the U.S

Vose¹,

Peterson²,

Patel-Weynand³

2012

103

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Section: Ecological Disturbance and Interaction Of Stressorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of climatic variability and change on forest ecosystems: a comprehensive science synthesis for the U.S

Vose¹,

Peterson²,

Patel-Weynand³

2012

103

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“…Climate change, in particular warming and drought, affects bark beetle life stage development rates, winter mortality, and host tree susceptibility (Logan and Powell, 2001;Carroll et al, 2004;Oneil, 2006). Across the West, stand structural conditions make host species susceptible to beetle attack (Hicke and Jenkins, 2008), future climate change is predicted to reduce the area of climate suitability for the MPB at low elevations, and increase climate suitability at higher elevations (Hicke et al, 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA

et al. 2010

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C limatic change is likely to affect Pacific Northwest (PNW) forests in several important ways. In this paper, we address the role of climate in four forest ecosystem processes and project the effects of future climatic change on these processes. First, we analyze how climate affects Douglas-fir growth across the region to understand potential changes in future growth. In areas where Douglas-fir is not water-limited, future growth will continue to vary with interannual climate variability, but in places where Douglas-fir is water-limited, growth is likely to decline due to projected increase in summer potential evapotranspiration. Second, we use existing analyses of climatic controls on future potential tree species ranges to highlight areas where species turnover may be greatest. By the mid 21 st century, some areas of the interior Columbia Basin and eastern Cascades are likely to have climates poorly suited to pine species that are susceptible to mountain pine beetle, and if these pines are climatically stressed, they may be more vulnerable to pine beetle attack. Climatic suitability for Douglas-fir is also likely to change, with substantial decreases in climatically suitable area in the Puget Trough and the Okanogan Highlands. Third, using regression approaches, we examine the relationships between climate and the area burned by fire in the PNW and in eight Washington ecosystems and project future area burned in response to changing climate. Area burned is significantly related to both temperature and precipitation in summer, but more physiologically relevant variables, such as water balance deficit, perform as well or better in models. Regional area burned is likely to double or even triple by the end of the 2040s, although Washington ecosystems have different sensitivities to climate and thus different responses to climatic change. Fourth, we evaluate the influence of climatic change on mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks by quantifying both host-tree vulnerability and pine beetle adaptive seasonality. Host-tree vulnerability is closely related to vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and future projections support the hypothesis that summer VPD will increase over a significant portion of the range of host tree species. Due to the increased host 255vulnerability, MPB populations are expected to become more viable at higher elevations leading to increased incidence of MPB outbreaks. The increased rates of disturbance by fire and mountain pine beetle are likely to be more significant agents of changes in forest structure and composition in the 21st century than species turnover or declines in productivity. This suggests that understanding future disturbance regimes is critical for successful adaptation to climate change.

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“…Furthermore, the nature and strength of feedbacks also can change over time as forest development proceeds, because susceptibility to disturbance often depends on structural characteristics that vary with age or developmental stage. For example, host trees must reach a minimum size and abundance to be susceptible to a bark beetle outbreak (23,24), and burned forests must develop sufficient fuels before they can burn again (9,10). Thus, large disturbances might not only spatially homogenize susceptible habitat but also temporally synchronize susceptibility to a future disturbance by resetting a landscape to the same successional stage; for example, large, standreplacing fires that produce even-aged forests may set the stage for future widespread pest or pathogen outbreaks.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial variability in tree regeneration after wildfire delays and dampens future bark beetle outbreaks

Seidl

Donato

Raffa

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Climate change is altering the frequency and severity of forest disturbances such as wildfires and bark beetle outbreaks, thereby increasing the potential for sequential disturbances to interact. Interactions can amplify or dampen disturbances, yet the direction and magnitude of future disturbance interactions are difficult to anticipate because underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. We tested how variability in postfire forest development affects future susceptibility to bark beetle outbreaks, focusing on mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) and Douglas-fir beetle (Dendroctonus pseudotsugae) in forests regenerating from the large high-severity fires that affected Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming in 1988. We combined extensive field data on postfire tree regeneration with a well-tested simulation model to assess susceptibility to bark beetle outbreaks over 130 y of stand development. Despite originating from the same fire event, among-stand variation in forest structure was very high and remained considerable for over a century. Thus, simulated emergence of stands susceptible to bark beetles was not temporally synchronized but was protracted by several decades, compared with stand development from spatially homogeneous regeneration. Furthermore, because of fire-mediated variability in forest structure, the habitat connectivity required to support broad-scale outbreaks and amplifying cross-scale feedbacks did not develop until well into the second century after the initial burn. We conclude that variability in tree regeneration after disturbance can dampen and delay future disturbance by breaking spatiotemporal synchrony on the landscape. This highlights the importance of fostering landscape variability in the context of ecosystem management given changing disturbance regimes. disturbance interactions | heterogeneity | forest dynamics | landscape ecology | lodgepole pine

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Mapping lodgepole pine stand structure susceptibility to mountain pine beetle attack across the western United States

Cited by 60 publications

References 15 publications

Effects of climatic variability and change on forest ecosystems: a comprehensive science synthesis for the U.S

Effects of climatic variability and change on forest ecosystems: a comprehensive science synthesis for the U.S

Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA

Spatial variability in tree regeneration after wildfire delays and dampens future bark beetle outbreaks

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