Mapping Extreme Rainfall Statistics for Canada under Climate Change Using Updated Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves

Simonović́, Slobodan P.; Schardong, André; Sandink, Dan

doi:10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0000725

Cited by 24 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are one of the most frequently used tools in hydrology and water resources for the planning, design, and operation of hydraulic infrastructures [1]. The expected increase in rainfall intensity and frequency due to climate change can alter the IDF curves [2,3]. In such situations, the urban storm water management infrastructure based on IDF curves developed using the observed data can become insufficient to deal with the unexpected increase in runoff [4][5][6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty in Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves of Peninsular Malaysia under Changing Climate Scenarios

Noor

Shahid

Chung

et al. 2018

Water

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This study developed a methodological framework to update the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves under climate change scenarios. A model output statistics (MOS) method is used to downscale the daily rainfall of general circulation models (GCMs), and an artificial neural network (ANN) is employed for the disaggregation of projected daily rainfall to hourly maximum rainfall, which is then used for the development of IDF curves. Finally, the 1st quartiles, medians, and 3rd quartiles of projected rainfall intensities are estimated for developing IDF curves with uncertainty level. Eight GCM simulations under two radiative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, namely, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, are used in the proposed framework for the projection of IDF curves with related uncertainties for peninsular Malaysia. The projection of rainfall revealed an increase in the annual average rainfall throughout the present century. The comparison of the projected IDF curves for the period 2006–2099 with that obtained using GCM hindcasts for the based period (1971–2005) revealed an increase in rainfall intensity for shorter durations and a decrease for longer durations. The uncertainty in rainfall intensity for different return periods for shorter duration is found to be 2 to 6 times more compared to longer duration rainfall, which indicates that a large increase in rainfall intensity for short durations projected by GCMs is highly uncertain for peninsular Malaysia. The IDF curves developed in this study can be used for the planning of climate resilient urban water storm water management infrastructure in Peninsular Malaysia.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty in Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves of Peninsular Malaysia under Changing Climate Scenarios

Noor

Shahid

Chung

et al. 2018

Water

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“…Intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves are used to design infrastructure and water facilities so they are prepared for extreme precipitation to avoid damage. They are a standard tool used worldwide in engineering design applications, municipal water management, and the operation of water resources projects [ Cheng and AghaKouchak , ; Simonovic et al ., ]. IDF curves are designed to represent the relationship between intensity and duration of precipitation for different recurrences.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time‐varying extreme rainfall intensity‐duration‐frequency curves in a changing climate

Sarhadi

Soulis

2017

Geophysical Research Letters

125

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Anthropogenic climate change influences the nature and probabilistic behavior of extreme climate phenomena over time. Current infrastructure design of water systems, however, is based on intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves that assume extreme precipitation will not significantly change. To sustain the reliability of infrastructure designs in a changing environment, time‐varying nonstationary‐based IDF curves must replace the static stationary‐based IDF curves. This study outlines a fully time varying risk framework using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques to incorporate the impact of different complex nonstationary conditions on the occurrence of extreme precipitation in the Great Lakes area. The results demonstrate the underestimation of the extreme precipitation using stationary assumptions and the importance of updating infrastructure design strategies in a changing climate.

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“…To develop adaptation and/or mitigation strategies, many researchers have focused on evaluation of the impacts of climate change, especially on rainfall and runoff, using general circulation models (GCMs) and integrated assessment models based on alternative future scenarios . Such changes in precipitation characteristics could inform future development plans for stormwater management . In addition to climate change, the characteristics of storm runoff are also affected by geography and land‐surface features .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Scenarios Modeling of Urban Stormwater Management Response to Impacts of Climate Change and Urbanization

Wang

Zhang²,

et al. 2017

CLEAN Soil Air Water

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Future scenarios modeling is used to investigate the effectiveness of the urban stormwater infrastructure and its response to potential future changes. The changes of urban stormwater, both in-flow quantity and water quality, in response to climate change and urbanization are examined and tested in two highly developed urban catchments using the US Environmental Protection Agency's Storm Water Management Model. Similar responses are observed in the two catchments, despite their differences in size and land use. Flow quantity and water quality appears to be more sensitive to urbanization factors than to climatic change. With respect to factors attributable to urbanization, urban intensification (land use plus population density) has more of an effect than land-use changes alone. Low-impact development, as a key adaptation measure, could be effective in mitigating the adverse impacts of future changes on urban stormwater. The methodology developed in this study may be useful for urban stormwater planning and testing such plans against future urbanization and climate change scenarios.

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Mapping Extreme Rainfall Statistics for Canada under Climate Change Using Updated Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves

Cited by 24 publications

References 25 publications

Uncertainty in Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves of Peninsular Malaysia under Changing Climate Scenarios

Uncertainty in Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves of Peninsular Malaysia under Changing Climate Scenarios

Time‐varying extreme rainfall intensity‐duration‐frequency curves in a changing climate

Future Scenarios Modeling of Urban Stormwater Management Response to Impacts of Climate Change and Urbanization

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