Mapping changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of lumpy skin disease virus

Machado, Gustavo; Korennoy, Fedor I.; Álvarez, Julio; Picasso-Risso, Catalina; Pérez, Andrés; VanderWaal, Kimberly

doi:10.1101/531343

Cited by 2 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 60 publications

(69 reference statements)

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“…Allepuz et al (2019) identified increased odds of LSDV associated with land cover (specifically, cropland, grassland or shrubland compared with forest), higher cattle densities, higher annual mean temperature and higher diurnal temperature ranges. By contrast, Machado et al (2019) did not identify any association between land cover and the risk of LSDV but did find an increased risk associated with higher temperatures, higher precipitation and lower wind speeds. Despite the differences in underlying risk factors, both studies identified similar regions as being at high risk of LSDV transmission.…”

Section: Risk Assessmentcontrasting

confidence: 60%

“…By contrast, Machado et al. () did not identify any association between land cover and the risk of LSDV but did find an increased risk associated with higher temperatures, higher precipitation and lower wind speeds. Despite the differences in underlying risk factors, both studies identified similar regions as being at high risk of LSDV transmission.…”

Section: Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…Two studies explored the spatial and temporal risk of LSDV (Allepuz et al, 2019;Machado et al, 2019). These first examined the relationship between the occurrence of reported outbreaks in South-Eastern Europe, Turkey and Russia and livestock density, land cover and environmental variables.…”

Section: Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The resulting statistical models were then used to assess the risk of LSDV in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and central Asia. Allepuz et al (2019) used logistic regression modelling to identify factors associated with LSDV occurrence, while Machado et al (2019) used a combination of ecological niche modelling and Poisson regression. Allepuz et al (2019) identified increased odds of LSDV associated with land cover (specifically, cropland, grassland or shrubland compared with forest), higher cattle densities, higher annual mean temperature and higher diurnal temperature ranges.…”

Section: Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…() used logistic regression modelling to identify factors associated with LSDV occurrence, while Machado et al. () used a combination of ecological niche modelling and Poisson regression. Allepuz et al.…”

Section: Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Lumpy skin disease epidemiological report IV: data collection and analysis

Calistri¹,

Clercq²,

Gubbins³

et al. 2020

EFS2

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In 2019, no lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks were reported in South‐Eastern Europe, the mass vaccination regional campaign with homologous LSD vaccine continued for the fourth year with over 1.8 million bovines vaccinated in the region, preventing further outbreaks since 2016. LSD outbreaks were reported in Turkey, including western Turkey, in Russia and in eastern Asia affecting China, Bangladesh and India for the first time. The use of homologous vaccine should be considered in the countries still affected in order to eliminate the virus. Besides passive surveillance, which is implemented in all the countries, active surveillance for early detection based on clinical examination could be conducted ideally during April–October every 5 weeks in at‐risk areas, based on possible re‐emergence or re‐introduction from affected neighbouring countries. Active surveillance for proving disease freedom could be based on serological testing (enzyme‐linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA)) targeting 3.5% seroprevalence and conducted on a random sample of cattle herds on non‐vaccinated animals. LSD re‐emerged in Israel in 2019, after vaccination became voluntary. This shows that, if the virus is still circulating in the region, the reduced protection might result in re‐emergence of LSD. In case of re‐emergence, a contingency plan and vaccine stockpiling would be needed, in order to react quickly. From a study performed in Israel to test side effects of live‐attenuated homologous LSD vaccine, milk production can be reduced during 7 days after vaccination (around 6–8 kg per cow), without a significant loss in the 30 days after vaccination. Research needs should be focused on the probability of transmission from insect to bovine, the virus inactivation rate in insects, the collection of baseline entomological data, the capacity of vector species in LSDV transmission linked to studies on their abundance and the control of Stomoxys calcitrans being the most important vector in LSD transmission.

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Section: Risk Assessmentcontrasting

confidence: 60%

Section: Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 88%

Section: Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Lumpy skin disease epidemiological report IV: data collection and analysis

Calistri¹,

Clercq²,

Gubbins³

et al. 2020

EFS2

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Impact of mass vaccination on the spatiotemporal dynamics of FMD outbreaks in India, 2008–2016

Gunasekera

Biswal

Machado³

et al. 2022

Transbounding Emerging Dis

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Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in India, where circulation of serotypes O, A and Asia1 is frequent. Here, we provide an epidemiological assessment of the ongoing mass vaccination programs in regard to post-vaccination monitoring and outbreak occurrence. The objective of this study was assessing the contribution of mass vaccination campaigns in reducing the risk of FMD in India from 2008 to 2016 by evaluating sero-monitoring data and modelling the spatiotemporal dynamics of reported outbreaks. Through analyzing antibody titre data from >1 million animals sampled as part of pre-and post-vaccination monitoring, we show that the percent of animals with inferred immunological protection (based on ELISA) was highly variable across states but generally increased through time. In addition, the number of outbreaks in a state was negatively correlated with the percent of animals with inferred protection.We then analyzed the distribution of reported FMD outbreaks across states using a Bayesian space-time model. This approach provides better acuity to disentangle the effect of mass vaccination programs on outbreak occurrence, while accounting for other factors that contribute to spatiotemporal variability in outbreak counts, notably proximity to international borders and inherent spatiotemporal correlations in incidence. This model demonstrated a ∼50% reduction in the risk of outbreaks in states that were part of the vaccination program. In addition, after controlling for spatial autocorrelation in the data, states that had international borders experienced heightened risk of FMD outbreaks. These findings help inform risk-based control strategies for India as the country progresses towards reducing reported clinical disease.

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Mapping changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of lumpy skin disease virus

Cited by 2 publications

References 60 publications

Lumpy skin disease epidemiological report IV: data collection and analysis

Lumpy skin disease epidemiological report IV: data collection and analysis

Impact of mass vaccination on the spatiotemporal dynamics of FMD outbreaks in India, 2008–2016

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