Mäntytukin alueelliset markkinat ja hintavaihteluiden ennustaminen Suomessa

Malaty, Ramses; Toppinen, Anne; Viitanen, Jari

doi:10.14214/ma.6139

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“…The lumber demand in the United States was forecasted by Alexander et al, (2003) using time series analysis methods. Malaty et al, (2007) analyzed the Nordic pine saw log regional markets and placed special emphasis on the short-run forecasting of different time series models up to April 2006. As a benchmark case, they compared the models performance in terms of root mean square forecasting errors (RMSE) of standard autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) and vector autoregressive (VAR) models to those of Harvey's (1989) With hindsight, stumpage markets experienced a price decrease during July-December 2005 and a turning point up in early 2006 but none of these models were able to accurately predict.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical Modeling to Forecast the Wood-Based Panels Consumption in Iran

2014

Int. J. Biosci.

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In this paper, the consumption of wood -based panels in Iran are forecasted up to the year 2014 using statistical time series exponential smoothing and ARIMA models. The models performance was calculated in term of RMSE. ADF test was applied to investigate the stationary character of the data. The results indicated that the Holt-winters exponential smoothing model with the smallest RMSE can be selected as the best forecasting model for particleboard and plywood. The ARIMA (2,1,1) model provided the smallest RMSE and it was selected as the best forecasting model for veneer. Forecasting accuracy of the Holt-Winters model is more than the double exponential smoothing model, especially in the case of plywood. It was projected that consumption levels particleboard, veneer and plywood to increase and then decrease from 2010 to 2014 respectively. The most significant increase is forecasted in the consumption of veneer and particleboard. The average annual rates of increase are calculated as 5.1% and 1.17% for veneer and particleboard respectively. For plywood, the average annual rate of decrease is 3%. Particleboard. The consumption quantity of particleboard and veneer will increase

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical Modeling to Forecast the Wood-Based Panels Consumption in Iran

2014

Int. J. Biosci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Mäntytukin alueelliset markkinat ja hintavaihteluiden ennustaminen Suomessa

Cited by 1 publication

References 0 publications

Statistical Modeling to Forecast the Wood-Based Panels Consumption in Iran

Statistical Modeling to Forecast the Wood-Based Panels Consumption in Iran

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