Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises

Abstract

I can feel it coming, S.E.C. or not, a whole new round of disastrous speculation, with all the familiar stages in order-blue-chip boom, then a fad for secondary issues, then an over-the-counter play, then another garbage market in new issues, and finally the inevitable crash. I don't know when it will come, but I can feel it coming, and damn it, I don't know what to do about it.-Bernard J. Lasker Chairman of the New York Stock Exchange in 1970, quoted in 1972 in John Brooks, The Go-Go Years Contents Introduction lX

Bolha nos preços dos ativos e política monetária

“…Essas crenças se devem a manias ou ao otimismo excessivo dos agentes. A confiança exagerada nos fundamentos subjacentes ao ativo (como uma nova tecnologia ou melhoria na estrutura organizacional, por exemplo) gera ganhos futuros (Klindeberger, 1978;Meltzer, 2003). Em termos agregados, este otimismo exagerado contribui para a subavaliação do risco e aumento excessivo do crédito.…”

Nonlinear Herding Mechanism and Asset Price Evolution

“…Economists have taken much interest in financial asset bubbles. According to the statistical analysis provided by Kindleberger [1], a local-or global-scale financial crisis occurs once every decade. The once-in-a-century global financial tsunami recently triggered by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis is even more alarming.…”

Default, Credit Growth and Asset Prices

“…7 Chen (2001) develops an extension of theKiyotaki and Moore (1997) model where an additional amplification of business cycles results from the effect of asset price movements on banks' balance sheets. An early reference for this argument isKeynes (1931).8 The possibility of mutually reinforcing cycles in credit and asset markets has already been stressed byKindleberger (1978) andMinsky (1982).9 Aggregate asset price indices are calculated as a weighted average of residential property, commercial property, and equity prices. The weights are based on the share of each asset in national balance-sheets, which are derived based on national flow-of-funds data or UN standardized national accounts.…”