Mangroves play a crucial role in improving the water quality of mangrove wetlands. However, current research faces challenges, such as the difficulty in quantifying the impact of mangroves on water quality and the unclear pathways of influence. This study utilized remote sensing imagery to investigate the long-term changes in mangrove forests in the Futian Mangrove National Nature Reserve and constructed a water quality index based on water quality data. Finally, structural equation modeling was employed to explore the pathways of influence and quantify the impact effects of mangroves, climate, and water quality. The study findings revealed several key points: (1) The mangrove forests in the Futian Mangrove National Nature Reserve exhibited a trend of expansion towards the ocean during this period. (2) The seasonal and annual characteristics of water quality in Shenzhen Bay indicated a significant improvement in water quality from 2000 to 2020. (3) Mangroves have significant direct and indirect impacts on water quality, which are more pronounced than the effects of climate factors. These findings not only offer insights for the environmental management and conservation of Shenzhen Bay but also provide support for future comprehensive studies on the response relationships between the morphology, species, and physiological characteristics of mangroves and water quality.
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