Managing uncertainty in research and development

Doctor, R.N; Newton, David; Pearson, A. W.

doi:10.1016/s0166-4972(00)00026-2

Cited by 48 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Wang et al (2010) propose a method to link risk management activities in NPD projects via a balanced scorecard and quality function deployment to corporate and project strategy. Two specific methods to facilitate decision making under uncertainty are the focus of the paper by Doctor et al (2001), i.e. decisions trees and option pricing theory.…”

Section: Manuscript (Final Revision): Effect Of Risk Management Practmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the effect of risk management practices on the performance of new product development programs

et al. 2014

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Link back to DTU Orbit Citation (APA):Oehmen, J., Olechowski, A., Kenley, C. R., & Ben-Daya, M. (2014). Analysis of the effect of risk management practices on the performance of new product development programs. Technovation, 34(8), 441-453. DOI: 10.1016441-453. DOI: 10. /j.technovation.2013 Analysis of the effect of risk management practices on the performance of new product development programs Highlights Investigates the association between risk management practices and new product development program performance  Based on extensive empirical data collected through survey  Presents new framework to define risk management success in NPD programs  Identifies six categories of risk management practices associated with success  Out of 95 analysed risk management "best practices", only 30 show significant associations with success. AbstractRisk management is receiving much attention, as it is seen as a method to improve cost, schedule, and technical performance of new product development programs. However, there is a lack of empirical research that investigates the effective integration of specific risk management practices proposed by various standards with new product development programs and their association with various dimensions of risk management success. Based on a survey of 291 new product development programs, this paper investigates the association of risk management practices with five categories of product development program performance: A. Quality Decision Making, B. High program stability; C. Open, problem solving organization; D. Overall NPD project success and E. Overall product success. The results show that six categories of risk management practices are most effective: 1. Develop risk management skills and resources; 2. Tailor risk management to and integrate it with new product development; 3. Quantify impacts of risks on your main objectives; 4. Support all critical decisions with risk management results; 5. Monitor and review your risks, risk mitigation actions, and risk management process; and 6. Create transparency regarding new product development risks. The data shows that the risk management practices are directly associated with outcome measures in the first three categories (improved decision making, program stability and problem solving). There is also evidence that the risk management practices indirectly associate with the remaining two categories of outcome measures (project and product success). Additional research is needed to describe the exact mechanisms through which risk management practices influence NPD program success. KeywordsRisk management, new product development, program management Manuscript (Final Revision): Effect of Risk Management Practices

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Section: Manuscript (Final Revision): Effect Of Risk Management Practmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the effect of risk management practices on the performance of new product development programs

et al. 2014

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“…For example, Trigeorgis [23], Benaroch & Kauffman [4] and Doctor et al [10] estimated the r parameter with treasury bills in U.S. and U.K. respectively. D. Fuzzy Real Options Carlsson and Fuller [8] stated that the relevance of historic data diminished very quickly after 2-3 years, so it series after 5 years ( and even much more so for 15-25 years ahead).…”

Section: Real Options Presentationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Product Outsourcing under Uncertainty: an Application of Fuzzy Real Option Approach

Cheng

Lee

2007

2007 IEEE International Fuzzy Systems Conference

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In recent years, in order to decrease production costs and improve competitiveness, outsourcing is adopted by many organizations. Furthermore, outsourcing is considered by more than 90 percent of investigated companies as an important part of their overall business strategy to acquire competitive advantage. Many conventional approaches take no proper account of uncertainty into the evaluation of product outsourcing, and therefore easily result in misevaluating. A new methodology, fuzzy real option approach, can be used to solve this problem. In this article, an empirical study is conducted to obtain the optimum of call price by the joint approach of fuzzy real option, weighted fuzzy real option and fuzzy decision space. The result indicates that the model developed in this study is more stable and flexible, and expected to enable the better decision making for investors.

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“…The economist Knight (1921) already distinguished between risk (known probabilities) and uncertainty (unknown probabilities) and viewed profit as a reward for the entrepreneur for facing or coping with uncertainty in the market [12]. A more recent interpretation is given by Doctor et al by relating uncertainty to decision-making regarding Research & Development: "Uncertainty exists if an action can lead to several possible outcomes and an essential, but, challenging aspect of R and D management is to identify the likelihood or probability that these outcomes or events will occur" [6].…”

Section: Some Aspects Of Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Dealing with uncertainties in building scenarios for the development of mobile services

Kar

Duin

2004

37th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, 2004. Proceedings of The

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The mobile telecommunications industry needs to develop services for the mobile data market, not only to regain their investments in licenses but also to stay competitive in the future. The current turbulence on markets, politics and technology is generating many uncertainties with regard to, for instance, user needs, dominant technology and the role of different market players. The goal of this paper is to show how to apply the scenario method for coping with these uncertainties in the development of mobile data services. We argue that mobile service providers should pay more and permanent attention to these uncertainties when developing new mobile data services.In 2001 a Dutch consortium (named MOBUS), consisting of representatives of mobile service providers, research institutes, universities, telecommunication suppliers and financial companies, undertook a project with the goal of defining possible new services for the mobile telecommunications industry. To develop a view on the future, a set of four scenarios for the year 2005 was developed. These scenarios were not only made to gain insight into possible new mobile data services but also into how users might use these services and which technologies might be available. An important element of the project was a list of uncertainties produced by the consortium that formed the basis of the scenarios. These uncertainties were evaluated two years later to find out whether these uncertainties are still valid, why they changed and if new uncertainties have come up. Two items were considered to be not uncertain anymore, i.e. mobile services will be multimedia based and mobile payment is available. On the other hand 26 new uncertainties were identified. Therefor all market parties involved in mobile data services development should reconsider uncertainties on a regular basis with different teams of experts.

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Managing uncertainty in research and development

Cited by 48 publications

References 14 publications

Analysis of the effect of risk management practices on the performance of new product development programs

Analysis of the effect of risk management practices on the performance of new product development programs

Product Outsourcing under Uncertainty: an Application of Fuzzy Real Option Approach

Dealing with uncertainties in building scenarios for the development of mobile services

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